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As of November 2, FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 90% chance of winning the Electoral College (compared to around 70% for Clinton in 2016) and a 97% chance of winning the popular vote. Everyone has read about how the reasons a number of polls—especially state polls—were off in 2016. In order to win reelection, President Trump has to hope for an even more significant polling error in 2020 that tilts in his direction.
Although no Democrat has won Arizona in a presidential election since Bill Clinton narrowly carried it in 1996 (and before that not since Harry Truman), current electoral trends have shown that the state is becoming more favorable to Democrats.
Imagine, for just a moment, a state where ballot measures to legalize recreational marijuana, increase the minimum wage, and limit campaign contributions at the state level have passed with strong majorities. A state where for the better part of a decade, population growth in urban counties has vastly outpaced that of more rural, and traditionally conservative, counties. For this is the political reality in Colorado. It’s simply not a swing state, or at least not by any reasonable definition of the term.
It has been almost 100 years since a Republican has won the presidency without winning the state of Florida. This trend is likely to continue as incumbent Donald Trump finds himself in dire need of a win in Florida if he is to secure reelection.
Since the 2016 election, Georgia has seen changes in the demographics of its voters. The electorate has become more diverse with a growing percentage of young and minority voters. Minority groups in Georgia consistently show higher preference and voting records for Democratic candidates than they do for Republican candidates, giving a significant new edge to Biden.
In the last twelve general elections, Iowa has supported the Republican candidate six times and the Democratic candidate six times, correctly predicting the general election winner nine out of the twelve elections.