Megan Rodgers is a senior Honors College Fellow from Siloam Springs, Arkansas, who is majoring in international studies, political science and Spanish at the University of Arkansas. Her interests focus on the topic of peace building and she is currently the vice-president of Students with Refugees at the University of Arkansas and the co-student director of STAND: the student-led movement to end mass atrocity. After graduation, Megan plans to pursue a master’s degree in conflict resolution and dedicate her career to leading the U.S. support of peace building initiatives both domestically and abroad.
It has been almost 100 years since a Republican has won the presidency without winning the state of Florida. This trend is likely to continue as incumbent Donald Trump finds himself in dire need of a win in Florida if he is to secure reelection. Trump narrowly won the state in 2016 and has visited the state regularly since, referring to it as his “home state” and casting his own ballot in Palm Beach. Trump continues to be popular with Cubans in Miami and Venezuelans and other minority groups who have raised concerns about the perceived socialist nature of many of Bidens’ policies, causing Biden to lose ground with Latinos – a group traditionally supportive of Democrats. Latino voters have played a significant role as swing voters in recent state elections, and Biden was criticized early in his campaign for not doing enough to win them over. Biden is, however, gaining popularity with seniors in Florida who tend to disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of the Coronavirus among other things.
Both candidates have prioritized spending time in Florida as each hopes to generate as much support as possible in a state where the margin of victory promises to be small. On Thursday, October 29th – just a few days before election day, Trump and Biden held simultaneous rallies in Florida. Spending has also increased in this important battleground state with Biden set to outspend Trump as significant amounts of cash on hand have allowed the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee to outspend the Trump Campaign and RNC on advertising in the state by $3.9 million. Both candidates have also enjoyed significant spending on their behalf with former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg contributing $100 million through his super PAC to support Biden and Florida Senator Rick Scott contributing six figures to his own ad campaign in support of Trump.
Despite all of these efforts made by both candidates, polling in Florida remains close with results consistently landing within the margin of error as pointed out by a recent NBC Miami report which gave Biden a three point lead over Trump. Project FiveThirtyEight and 270 to Win are also showing Biden with a narrow lead over Trump as of October 29, but Real Clear Politics gave Trump the edge for the first time since August just days before.
Prediction: This race is incredibly close and polls are narrowing as election day draws nearer. It truly is anyone’s race at this point and the 2016 race has taught Democrats not to be overly optimistic in this state. However, I predict that Democratic mobilization will prove effective in giving Biden a narrow victory in Florida.