Beck Williams is a junior honors student and Sturgis Fellow at the University of Arkansas majoring in political science and mathematics with minors in Spanish and statistics. Originally from Fort Smith, Arkansas, Beck is involved in multiple leadership and service positions on campus. He serves as the Associate Member Program Coordinator, Student Ambassadors Vice President, and the Assessment Coordinator for the Volunteer Action Center’s upcoming Be BOLD Program. Following his undergraduate, Beck aims to pursue a law degree.
Ten years ago, if the average politically minded American were to be asked about the nation’s “swing states,” they likely would have rattled off states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that had seen very close presidential election results within the past few elections. Only the most extensive and generous of these lists would have included Georgia, a state that has consistently voted for the Republican presidential candidate in the past six elections. Now, in the political moment of 2020, Georgia has entered the top of the list among the narrowest races in the country. Could this red state turn blue on November 3rd? Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden hopes so.
Current polling in the final week of the election places Georgia in a tight toss-up between Biden and incumbent President Donald Trump. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average as of October 29 gives Biden a slight advantage, while Real Clear Politics finds the candidates at a near-exact tie. This is incredibly good news for the Democrats, whose last presidential candidate to win Georgia was Bill Clinton in 1992. While the Republicans have since held the state, previous elections have tended increasingly toward the Democrats. Republican Mitt Romney won the state by 7.8 points in 2012, and four years later, Trump won by a smaller margin of 5.1 points. In the 2018 midterms, the Democrats held each of their Congressional seats, while one Republican seat, the 6th District, was flipped by the Democrats. Despite a Republican winning streak, these numbers seem to suggest a tipping point in the near future.
Election numbers are not the only indications of change in Georgia. Since the 2016 election, Georgia has seen changes in the demographics of its voters. The electorate has become more diverse with a growing percentage of young and minority voters. Minority groups in Georgia consistently show higher preference and voting records for Democratic candidates than they do for Republican candidates, giving a significant new edge to Biden.
This news may be spectacular for the Democrats, but for Trump, it is absolutely frightening. What was previously thought to be a locked-down 16 electoral votes for Trump at the beginning of the election is now in danger of swinging to Biden. Even worse, the Trump campaign’s central strategy is to carry the same states he won in 2016. Now, Trump has to address this problem by taking time away from his focus on major swing states such as Florida to ensure he can keep one of his 2016 strongholds.
In a final effort, the Trump campaign is pouring immense amounts of campaign funds into television advertisements throughout the Atlanta metropolitan area. In fact, Georgia is one of the only states where the Trump campaign is outspending Biden in terms of TV ads. That being said, as for campaign spending as whole, Biden once again holds the upper hand. Despite the Trump campaign raising and spending more funds over the course of its campaign, the Biden campaign in mid-October had over double the amount of currently available cash than the Trump campaign, meaning it can effortlessly outspend the Trump campaign in these final, crucial days of the election.
Prediction: As vote margins narrow with each election, the numbers suggest Georgia is due for a flip—and what more suitable year for such an occurrence than the already unprecedented 2020? Biden’s advantages in Georgia remain substantial, and with projected record voter turnout, the Democrats are hoping to break the 28-year red streak. Given his funding advantage and Georgia’s shifting demographics, I predict that Joe Biden will emerge successful in the state of Georgia and lead the Democrats in flipping the state blue.