Dane Arbuckle is a sophomore honors student at the University of Arkansas majoring in political Science and history, with a minor in religious studies. Originally from Rogers, Arkansas, Dane has been involved in many campus activities such as the Associate Student Government Associate Member Program and Residents’ Interhall Congress. After graduation, Dane hopes to attend law school.
Over the past several election cycles, Democrats have seen Arizona as a perfect candidate for a historically Republican state that they can move into the swing state column. And although no Democrat has won the State in a presidential election since Bill Clinton narrowly carried it in 1996 (and before that not since Harry Truman), current electoral trends have shown that the state is becoming more favorable to Democrats. Trump only barely carried Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, despite its ruby red history, and in 2018, Arizona elected its first Democratic senator in 30 years. In the 2020 cycles, polling data here has more strongly supported Joe Biden, who seems to have about a 2% lead and is currently rated by 538 as of October 29 to have about a 70% chance of winning the state.
One likely reason for this trend in favor of the Democrats is that Arizona, like the rest of the Southwest, is experiencing a rapidly growing population and demographic shifts. Democrats have long done well with Arizona’s minority population, in particular Latino/a voters, who make up 20% of the State’s likely voters, as well as among the State’s smaller Black and indigenous populations. Democrats have also made strong inroads among more traditionally Republican voting blocs, particularly among its large swath of suburban voters. Maricopa County, which contains Phoenix and its suburbs, constitutes a majority of the State’s population, and as Democrats have performed better among white suburban voters in recent election cycles, this historically red county has been hotly contested. In late September and the beginning of this month, the Biden campaign spent more money in the Phoenix media market than anywhere else in the country. The Trump campaign is certainly nervous about its prospect in this highly important county, which voted for Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema in 2018, and is trying to run up its numbers in the state’s rural areas to compensate.
The Biden campaign has also done better among Arizona’s large senior and Mormon populations, which are also traditionally Republican. The President has struggled among voters over 65 this election cycle, due in large part to his controversial handling of the coronavirus pandemic, and Democrats are trying heavily to capitalize off of this in the popular retirement State. It also seems many socially conservative Mormon voters have never fully come around to the bombastic President Trump, with Trump’s performance among Mormons nationwide dropping to 61% from Mitt Romney’s 78% in 2012. The Trump campaign knows that it must perform strongly with Mormon voters in order to carry the State; Vice President Mike Pence even launched the “Latter-day Saints for Trump” campaign in the historically Mormon suburb of Mesa, which is in Maricopa County.
Prediction: Overall though, Biden’s advantage in Arizona has been incredibly stable throughout the campaign. Biden’s polling lead has not slipped, and he continues to have the spending advantage; the Biden campaign has spent $5.7 million in the State compared to the Trump campaign’s $2 million. The Democrats’ strategy of mobilizing turnout among the state’s Latino/a voters, while also expanding support among moderate suburban, senior, and Mormon voters seems to be paying off. Because of this reason, I predict that this November Joe Biden will become only the third Democrat in 75 years to carry the State of Arizona, and that the State will continue to be a hotly contested one in many presidential elections to come.