Connor Logan is a senior honors student majoring in psychology at the University of Arkansas. Originally from Maumelle, Arkansas, Connor is active as a volunteer at the VA Hospital in Fayetteville. He also is a member of a number of academic honors societies including Eta Sigma Phi and Alpha Epsilon Delta. He plans on attending medical school after obtaining his B.A. in psychology.
Wisconsin holds ten electoral college votes for the 2020 presidential election. This may not seem like a lot, but in an election that is shaping up to be a close one, 10 electoral votes can make a big difference. Wisconsin has been a relatively contested state between the Democratic party and the Republican party throughout its history. However, in recent history the state has often sided more with the Democrats. For seven straight elections, from 1988 to 2012, the Democratic candidate won the state. This streak was broken in 2016 when the state voted for Donald Trump. In the past 12 elections dating back to 1972, the winner of Wisconsin has also won the election 9 times. This is clearly an indication of just how important winning Wisconsin is for any presidential candidate.
In the 2020 Democratic primary, Joe Biden defeated Bernie Sanders (and others) by a comfortable margin, winning 63% of the vote. It should be noted that Sanders was likely close to dropping out of the race at this point, and many assumed that Biden would get the Democratic nomination regardless of who won Wisconsin. However, Biden’s favorability with Wisconsin primary voters does not change the fact that a large portion of Wisconsinites fall into a demographic category that has polled favorably for President Trump. This category being non-college-educated white voters, 59% of whom make up Wisconsin’s population. As mentioned, Democrats have had a solid record in the state over the past three decades, but this does not tell the whole story. Despite Democrats winning the state in the seven elections prior to 2016, a number of those victories were very close. Most notably in 2000 and 2004, where the average margin of victory for Democrats across both elections was just 0.3%. This is likely due in large part to the demographics represented in the state, because non-college-educated white voters tend to vote for Republican candidates. This demographic will be crucial to Trump’s success or failure in the state, just as it was in 2016.
In August 2020, among escalating national social unrest surrounding police brutality a young man shot and subsequently killed two Black Lives Matter protesters in Kenosha, WI. This individual has since been arrested and charged with 2 counts of murder and one count of attempted homicide, but claims he was acting in self-defense. After Biden condemned the violence in Kenosha, President Trump controversially defended the young man by saying that his actions may have been warranted. Trump later made a controversial visit to Kenosha in September, despite pleas from Governor Tony Evers to remain out of the picture so as to avoid escalating the situation further. All of this has of course energized both bases in the state. This will likely lead to much higher voter turnout than in previous elections, which could bode well for Biden considering Trump has not struggled much with energizing his own base.
Prediction: The race to win the Badger State is bound to be close, and we likely will not know the results from the state until after election day on November 3rd. This is because absentee ballots cannot be counted in Wisconsin until the day of the election. Even so, due to the rising levels of Coronavirus cases in Wisconsin, improved polling measures, and Trump’s narrow margin of victory in 2016, I predict that Joe Biden will win the state and claim its 10 electoral votes.