Daisy Rehbock is a junior honors student majoring in international studies with minors in gender studies and Spanish at the University of Arkansas. After growing up here in Fayetteville, Daisy has become involved in several extracurricular activities on campus, including the Speech and Debate Team, of which she is the current president and debate captain; Undergraduate Mock Trial, where she previously served as secretary and team captain; and Pre-Law Society, where she previously served as secretary. After receiving her undergraduate degree, Daisy plans to attend law school.
Texas has been in swing-state territory for the past few election cycles with many Democrats being optimistic for a big flip in the 2022 midterms. At the center of national attention stand Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat with a recent history of failed campaigns and Greg Abbott, the Republican incumbent who has been leading in the polls since 2021.
The Texas Governor race has looked very cut and dry in the weeks leading up to Election Day, with most polling sites calling an Abbott win highly likely. With such a large state like Texas, becoming the first Democratic governor since 1990 has proven to be an uphill battle for Beto O’Rourke, especially coming off his failed presidential campaign in 2020.
Texas is one of only six states with a majority-minority population, with Hispanics outnumbering non-Hispanic whites, making demographics in voting extremely unique, especially considering the stronghold Republicans have on the state. While some Texas Hispanics believe that Hispanics in Texas should be voting for Democratic candidates, it’s clear that this crucial demographic is very split between the parties. Republican candidates have been attempting to win over Hispanic voters, focusing in on small-business owners and how they can be benefitted under Republican policies. This tactic has proven to be semi-successful, with Abbott earning 42% of the Hispanic vote in 2018, however, the Hispanic population residing in urban centers still overwhelmingly vote Democrat. While polls show that most Hispanics who intend to vote will vote for O’Rourke, this likely will still not be enough for him to win the election.
Given that Texas is such a large state both in terms of land mass and population, spending in this cycle’s governor election has been immense on both sides, with more than $100 million raised. While the disclosure deadline has not yet passed, O’Rourke’s campaign has disclosed that they’ve raised over $57 million since the beginning of the year, with Abbott still out-raising his opponent by a slim margin, raising $25 million in the last three months alone. In the last few weeks, both candidates have ramped up spending on ads and campaign events, with several groups outside of Texas buying attack ads on Greg Abbott surrounding his response, or lack thereof, to the Uvalde school shooting. While both candidates in this race are phenomenal fundraisers, Abbott’s success in raising money in-state as opposed to O’Rourke’s major out-of-state contributions show just how committed Texas Republicans are to keeping their state red.
Prediction: While O’Rourke has proven to be an incredibly well-spoken Democrat with high hopes of cutting down on gun violence in Texas and keeping teachers in their jobs with promises of better benefits, Texas’ oppressive voter laws and gerrymandered districts favoring Republicans may be impossible to defeat this election cycle. As the title suggests, 2022 is not looking like the year that Texas flips blue, and it’s almost guaranteed that Greg Abbott will continue to be the Governor of the Lone Star State.