Noah Pittman is the instructor for this fall’s Honors College Forum, Midterm Elections. Noah serves as the assistant dean of enrollment for the University of Arkansas Honors College. His doctorate is in public policy, with a focus on higher education policy. He’s married to his beautiful wife, Pamela, and they have two small children, Bennett, an energetic 3 year old who you can find almost every weekend at the local children’s museum, and Ella, a precocious 9 month old whose only goal in life (at the moment) is to be able to walk around like her older brother. If you’re interested in tweets on politics, American higher education, or the occasional rant about the Atlanta Braves or the Memphis Grizzlies, you can follow him on Twitter, @NoahPittman.
It’s hard for me to believe, but this is my tenth year with the University of Arkansas Honors College. I have had some wonderful moments working with honors students, but this semester has easily been one of my favorites. Each week, I’ve gotten to work with 14 of the sharpest political minds you will find on a college campus, documenting the twists and turns of this year’s midterm election season. Our students are funny, energetic, and as you have probably seen in the previews they have posted on this website, incredibly well-informed. A few of them were even featured on KUAF’s Ozarks at Large to preview the upcoming election.
Aside from the detailed previews each student wrote about some of the most competitive U.S. House and Senate races this year, I also had the class make their “big picture” predictions about what to expect this evening. You will find each student’s predictions at the bottom of this post. That said, here are some quick notes about these predictions:
Conventional Wisdom? Before the campaign began, the conventional wisdom was that the Democrats would be the favorites to win the House (as is often the case for the opposition party during the first-term of a presidential administration) and that Republicans would be on defense, particularly after a relatively high number of congressional retirements. This year’s slate of Senate races, on the other hand, seemed to favor the Republicans, especially with so many Democratic incumbents running in states that President Trump won in 2016. As of this morning, the Democrats are indeed the favorites to win the House while the Republicans seem likely to maintain control of Senate. Neither scenario is a foregone conclusion, but it does seem more likely than not that the conventional wisdom will turn out to be true in 2018.
Blue Wave? Staying on the topic of the House, you will see that although our students believe the Democrats will win the House, there are a wide variety of predictions about how many seats they will have in their majority. Expect political pundits to argue for weeks after the election whether or not the final results were indicative of a “Blue Wave.”
Next Speaker? There is not much consensus on who will be the next Speaker of the House if the Democrats win the majority. Rep. Nancy Pelosi certainly seems in play to win back her speakership, but the students expect a number of opponents to come forward. Assuming the Democrats take back the House, this will be one of the more interesting Speaker of the House races in recent memory.
Upset Brewing in Georgia? The students are very bullish on Stacey Abrams’s chances of winning the governorship in Georgia. The race is certainly a toss-up at this point and Abrams does seem to be waving a last minute wave of momentum, particularly in the Atlanta metro area. Brian Kemp remains a slight favorite, but Abrams certainly has a shot to pull the upset.
What about the rest of the governor races? Overall, the governor races have not received their just due this election cycle. There are some critical governor’s races, and according to most prognosticators, the Democrats have a chance to pick-up a handful of important states, including Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, and Nevada. It is hard to imagine that the Democrats will win each of these races, but even picking up a handful of governor seats, particularly in large, swing states, could prove critical. Almost all of these newly elected governors will have final say over congressional redistricting plans that occur after the 2020 census. As we saw following Project Red Map in 2010, the way congressional districts maps are drawn can have a significant impact on the following decade of American politics.
Noah Pittman (Instructor)
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (51 seats)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (227 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. James Clyburn (South Carolina)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Rep. Jacky Rosen defeats Senator Dean Heller in Nevada.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Fred Hubbell defeats Governor Kim Reynolds in Iowa.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Secretary Julian Castro
JP Gairhan (Teaching Assistant)
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (51 seats)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (229 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Rep. Jacky Rosen defeats Senator Dean Heller in Nevada.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Stacey Abrams defeats Bryan Kemp in Georgia.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Cory Booker
Spencer Soule (Teaching Assistant)
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (51 seats)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (232 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. Cedric Richmond (Louisiana)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Senator Heidi Heitkamp defeats Rep. Kevin Cramer in South Dakota.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Stacey Abrams defeats Brian Kemp in Georgia.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Kamala Harris
Hope Davenport
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (52 seats)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (228 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. James Clyburn (South Carolina)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: JD Scholten defeats Rep. Steve King in IA4.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Billie Sutton defeats Rep. Kristi Noem in South Dakota.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Former Vice President Joe Biden
Hanna Ellington
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (50 seats, with Vice President Pence as tiebreaker)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (226 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. Steny Hoyer (Maryland)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Sharice Davids defeats Rep. Kevin Yoder in KS3.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Stacey Abrams defeats Brian Kemp in Georgia.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Cory Booker
Amanda Funderburg
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (51 seats)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (219 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (California)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Senator Heidi Heitkamp defeats Rep. Kevin Cramer in South Dakota.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Stacey Abrams defeats Brian Kemp in Georgia.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Elizabeth Warren
Will Hadley
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (52 seats)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (230 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (California)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Rick Scott defeats Senator Bill Nelson in Florida.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Stacey Abrams defeats Brian Kemp in Georgia.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Cory Booker
Alec Johnson
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (51 seats)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (230 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. James Clyburn (South Carolina)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Josh Hawley defeats Senator Claire McCaskill in Missouri.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Laura Kelly will defeat Kris Kobash in Kansas.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Elizabeth Warren
Samuel Lipson
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (51 seats)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (225 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (California)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Rep. Jacky Rosen defeats Senator Dean Heller in Nevada.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Stacey Abrams defeats Brian Kemp in Georgia.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Bernie Sanders
Carson Molder
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (54 seats)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (223 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Patrick Morrisey defeats Senator Joe Manchin in West Virginia.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Ron Desantis defeats Andrew Gillum in Florida.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Cory Booker
James Morgan
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (51 seats)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (234 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (California)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Phil Bredesen defeats Rep. Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Drew Edmondson defeats Kevin Stitt in Oklahoma.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Cory Booker
Julia Nall
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (50 seats, with Vice President Pence as tiebreaker)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (228 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. Marcia Fudge (Ohio)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Mary Barzee Flores defeats Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart in FL25.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Stacey Abrams defeats Brian Kemp in Georgia.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Elizabeth Warren
Trevor Paulsen
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (50 seats, with Vice President Pence as tiebreaker)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (240 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (California)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Senator Heidi Heitkamp defeats Rep. Kevin Cramer in South Dakota.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Laura Kelly defeats Kris Kobach in Kansas.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Elizabeth Warren
Jonny Rankin
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (52 seats)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (247 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (California)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Josh Hawley defeats Senator Claire McCaskill in Missouri.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Stacey Abrams defeats Brian Kemp in Georgia.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Elizabeth Warren
Katie Strickland
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (53 seats)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (221 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (California)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Josh Hawley defeats Senator Claire McCaskill in Missouri.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Fred Hubbell defeats Governor Kim Reynolds in Iowa.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Elizabeth Warren
Abby Wrzesinski
- Party that Wins Majority in Senate: Republicans (51 seats)
- Party that Wins Majority in House: Democrats (230 seats)
- Next Speaker of the House: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (California)
- Biggest Upset in a Congressional Race: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema will defeat Rep. Martha McSally in Arizona.
- Biggest Upset in a Governor’s Race: Stacey Abrams defeats Brian Kemp in Georgia.
- First Person to Announce Presidential Candidacy for 2020: Senator Elizabeth Warren