Noah Pittman is the instructor for this fall’s Honors College Forum: Campaign 2024. Noah serves as the associate dean of enrollment for the University of Arkansas Honors College. His doctorate is in public policy, with a focus on higher education policy. He’s married to his beautiful wife, Pamela, and they have two children, Bennett (9) and Ella (6). When he’s not with his children at their activities, which take up most of his waking hours outside of the office, you can find him losing his voice at Arkansas Razorbacks sporting events.
It’s hard to believe this is third edition of our presidential elections forum. Each year I expect we’re going to get a conventional presidential campaign and…well, we don’t. The insurgent campaign of Donald Trump in 2016 from the first primaries through the general election. The pandemic in 2020. This year has proven to be no exception, with a campaign that was completely upended in so many different ways over the summer. If you told me a year or two ago that we would enter Election Day 2024 with a super close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, I would have thought you were nuts.
The students have had an incredibly busy semester. We started the fall with assignments where they had to interview an individual who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 along with a second interview with someone who voted for Donald Trump. These interviews were done with the intention of helping students understand the reasoning behind a person’s vote, and how their political views can evolve–or not evolve–over the course of four years. This year’s honors forum has 25 students enrolled in the course. the most we have ever had by a decent margin. With more students, though, this year’s edition of the blog will not only features analysis on competitive states in the Electoral College, but will also analyze critical races that could determine the balance of the U.S. Senate. Before we get to these posts, here are some important questions we’re pondering:
Will Harris Secure the Blue Wall? There is no denying that the most straightforward path to the White House for Harris is through the Midwest. Barring a major surprise, Harris winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would get her to 269 votes, with a likely victory in the Nebraska Second Congressional District getting her to 270. For Trump, it is imperative that he take at least one of these three Rust Belt states while also securing competitive states in the Sun Belt, including North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. On Election Night, keep an eye on if Trump takes a Rust Belt swing state or if Harris is able to win in the Sun Belt. Either occurrence would provide a strong indication where the election results are heading.
What type of polling error will we see in 2024? Trump is no doubt in better position to win than he was in 2020 at this time. The polling error that favored Trump in 2020 is often overlooked because Biden still won the presidency in the end, just by a closer margin in most swing states than was originally expected. Polling error is to be expected, but what level of error will we see in 2024? And in the direction of which candidate? We’ll find out soon.
What will we learn from exit polls this year? I have A LOT of questions heading into this year’s election. At what rate will female voters support Democrats this year? In that same vein, are we witnessing a gender gap forming among Gen Z voters? Is Harris struggling as much with the Hispanic vote as pre-election polling has indicated? Is higher education attainment still as big of a predictor of party affiliation as it has been the past few cycles? How important were topics such as immigration and abortion to the average voter? Exit polling is not perfect, but it does give us a good indicator of what the electorate was feeling in this year’s election.
What about Congress? We’ve known for years that the U.S. Senate map in 2024 would be problematic for Democrats, who currently hold a 51-49 majority. Republicans will definitely flip West Virginia and are strong favorites to take Montana, which would likely get them to 51 seats, barring an unexpected Democratic flip in Texas. The big question is can the GOP also gain important flips in states such as Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? Republicans securing 51 seats will certainly give them the majority come January, but it could also be viewed as a disappointment when 54-55 seats once looked attainable. The House, on the other hand, remains a toss-up. Keep a close eye on key races in California, New York, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. All of these states have multiple toss ups down ballot that could decide the balance of power in Congress.
And with that, here are our blog posts!
Electoral College: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Maine-2nd, Michigan, Nebraska-2nd, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin
Senate: Arizona, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, West Virginia