Webb Storer is a sophomore honors student majoring in political science at the University of Arkansas. Originally from Jonesboro, AR, Webb has been actively involved in a number of activities on campus, including the Student Mentorship program and the Honors College Ambassadors. After college, Webb hopes to pursue a Law degree and work in intellectual property law.
Almost every swing state in this election is razor thin in the general election. Currently, there are three states that are considered dead even, or within half a point of being even. Michigan, for example, is considered a tossup with a slight edge for the Democratic candidate with Harris having a 0.8 point lead according to 538’s polling average in late October. Michigan’s 15 electoral votes mean that it will be difficult for either candidate to win the Electoral College without winning this critical state. Despite this, it is much more imperative for Harris to win Michigan than it is for Trump. Trump seems to have somewhat of an advantage in the Sun Belt, leading in North Carolina by 1 point, Georgia by 1.7 points, and Arizona by 2.2 points according to 538 polling averages. This means that if Trump were to win Michigan, while winning the states that he is currently leading in the polls, it would make it virtually impossible for Harris to win without flipping at least one Sun Belt state.
Both campaigns have been heavily investing in Michigan advertisements with Democrats spending $158 million up to now and Republicans spending $101 million according to CNN Politics. The key issue that we have seen arise with Michigan voters is the Israeli-Gaza war. This caused many voters in the primaries to write in “undecided” rather than vote for Joe Biden as they saw him as supporting the Israeli military actions in Gaza. This is important because while the Harris campaign has repeatedly tried to distance itself from Israel’s military actions, the US has continued to support the military of Israel. Even if they say that they want a ceasefire, it seems unlikely that voters will change their minds if little action is taken to address the problem. On the other hand, these same voters are unlikely to vote for Trump because he has a track record of being one of the most pro-Israel presidents in recent memory. Ultimately, and probably worse for Harris, it seems that if nothing is done then these voters will likely abstain from voting or vote for a third party. Considering that Arab-Americans are typically a largely Democrat voting bloc in Michigan, this would take away significantly more votes from Harris than Trump.
Prediction: With all of these factors, I believe it gives Former President Trump enough momentum to win Michigan by the thinnest of margins, barring any unprecedented turn in Israel’s military action in Gaza happening in the next week.