Abigail Lutrick is a senior honors political science student from North Texas. Abigail hopes to pursue a law degree after graduating from the University of Arkansas and has spent the past four years involved in campus activities ranging from Greek Life to Club Tennis to Associated Student Government.
Maine is always an interesting case study during a presidential election. Rather that allocating its electoral votes on a winner takes all system, Maine divides its four votes into three separate battles. One vote is given for each congressional district, District 1 and District 2, and the remaining two electoral votes are awarded to the overall state winner. Maine has been consistently Democratic in the presidential election since 1992 and seems to be continuing on that track as a whole, even though the state’s second district may very well go Republican.
To better understand Maine politics, the state’s political history and voter composition should be analyzed. Maine is composed of 1.3 million people, with 81% of the population being of voting age. However, only 948,734 residents are registered to vote, with 36% registered as Democrats while 29.5% are registered Republicans. Although registered percentages aren’t always reflective of election results, in the case of Maine, the higher number of registered Democrats does reflect the recent history of Maine election results. In the past six presidential elections, Maine has followed a fairly consistent pattern of party distribution, with the Republican vote moving between 40% to 44% while the Democrat’s distribution has fluctuated between 47% to 57%. Recent polls have shown that this election cycle will most likely fall in line with the same pattern Maine has seen since 2000. Three polls have been released since August, all showing a progression towards the typical party alignment distribution. The University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll conducted from August 15th to 19th placed Kamala Harris ahead by 17 points in the statewide survey. However, Harris’ lead decreased in the two polls released subsequently by Pan Atlantic Research in early to mid-September and Digital Research’s September 10th to October 7th poll. The mid-September poll from Pan Atlantic Research showed an 8-point decrease in Harris’ lead over Donald Trump. Following the same trend, Digital Research’s poll placed Harris at only a 7-point lead at the beginning of October. Although Trump seems to be closing in on Harris’ lead, based on previous distributions, there is good reason to believe that solely based on polling data, Harris will prevail and claim at least two electoral votes from Maine.
Additionally, the amount of donations received from Maine for both campaigns indicates similar prediction to the polling data. As of mid-October, the Harris campaign has received approximately $4.6 million from donations sourced out of Maine as compared to the $930,000 that the Trump campaign has raised. The past month of donations alone has Harris out-raising Trump by nearly 8x, with approximately $1 million compared to nearly $130,000. Similar to polling, while monetary donations are not a guarantee of who will win, it does give good reason to believe that Harris has a strong voter base who is willing to mobilize and contribute to her campaign and is expected to lend their support on November 5th.
Prediction: I believe that the most recent polling and donation data paints a clear image that Harris has the advantage in Maine. Therefore, based on current data and Maine’s presidential election history, I predict that Harris will receive the two electoral votes awarded for winning the statewide race.