Wyatt Rice is a sophomore honors college fellow majoring in political science and economics at the University of Arkansas. Originally from Bentonville, AR, Wyatt is involved across campus in a variety of capacities, as an ASG Senator, an intern with the Office for Sustainability, and a member of Honors College Ambassadors and Democracy Fellows. After graduating the University of Arkansas, Wyatt hopes to continue his education attending law school.
Nebraska’s second congressional district is a small but critical part of this year’s presidential race. NE2, with just over 650,000 residents, encompasses most of Omaha, and its western suburbs, and leans significantly more towards the Democratic party than the rest of the state.
“But wait,” you may ask, “because of the Electoral College, all that matters is who wins each state. So why have your written all these words about one congressional district?” And you would be right! In most states, whichever presidential candidate wins 50% plus one in the state, takes all that state’s electoral votes. However, in two states, Maine and Nebraska starting in 1972 and 1992 respectively, electoral votes are split: the winner of the statewide popular vote is awarded two electoral votes, and one electoral vote is awarded to the winner of each congressional district. Since these systems have been in place Nebraska’s votes have only been split in two presidential elections. Barrack Obama won NE2 in 2008, and in 2020 the district went blue again for Joe Biden.
Here’s why you should care: NE2 is part of one of the most straightforward possible outcomes of this election. If Kamala Harris wins the district and holds on to the “blue wall” swing states (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) she will have 270 electoral votes, the exact number needed to win the election. If in the same situation, Harris was to lose the sole electoral vote from Nebraska’s second district, both candidates would hold 269 electoral votes – a tie. In this situation, the new Congress sworn in on January 3rd, would choose the winners, with the House of Representatives voting between the presidential candidates, and the Senate voting between the vice-presidential candidates.
As for where the race stands today, Harris seems well positioned to win the district. FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast models a Harris win of NE2 89 out of 100 times, a probability that has gone up over time as polls have shown a consistently comfortable lead that has grown to Harris +12 in the most recent Times Sienna College poll. Democrats in Nebraska’s second district have created a strong culture around their identity as the “blue dot” in a sea of red. The swing voters in the district, similar those in Iowa when primary season rolls around, are more politically engaged and willing to split tickets. The polling bears this out; a Times Sienna poll from September, one of the most robust of both the congressional and presidential, found Don Bacon the Republican incumbent carrying 11% of Harris voters. The Harris campaign is not resting on its laurels by any means; residents of Omaha and its suburbs are still inundated with television ads, and Tim Walz has made multiple trips to NE2 since being nominated for Vice President.
The Trump campaign has largely ignored the electoral vote up for grabs in Nebraska, since a Trump aligned push that would have removed the vote-splitting system failed. Republican State Senator Mike McDonnell, who’s support would have created the 2/3 vote necessary to change the election rules, refused to back the plan, effectively killing it. The Trump campaign has sent surrogate and former candidate Robert Kennedy Jr to the state to campaign for Trump, but neither member of the republican ticket has been to Nebraska since a Vance-headlined fundraiser in August.
Prediction: While the race in Nebraska’s second congressional remains closer than most districts in the country, and despite attempted political shortcuts, it looks safe for Harris one week out, making her path to victory just one vote easier. The pale blue dot looks poised for its third appearance.