Abby Wrzesinski is a freshman honors student studying anthropology at the University of Arkansas. Originally from Lake Village, Arkansas, Abby is an Honors College Fellow and is also involved with the Honors College Ambassadors. After college, Abby plans to attend medical school.
Currently, the Missouri Senate election is one of the most competitive and least predictable races in the nation. The seat is presently occupied by Senator Claire McCaskill (D) and has been since 2006, when McCaskill defeated the former incumbent, Republican Jim Talent, by two points. Now, Senator McCaskill faces a tough reelection against Josh Hawley (R), Missouri’s current attorney general. Both candidates in this race are no stranger to winning races by larger margins, as McCaskill defeated her opponent in 2012 by 15% and Hawley took the position of attorney general in 2016 with 61% of the total vote. Both candidates also won their primaries by significant vote totals. However, recent polls for this race put Hawley up by a slim polling average of 0.2%.
The state of Missouri is regarded as a highly rural state, as one third of its six million residents reside in rural areas. Missouri has also been trending as a red state in recent presidential elections. Donald Trump won the state by a margin of 19 percentage points against Hillary Clinton, and Mitt Romney won it by 9.6 percent in his run against President Obama in 2012. However, the 2018 election will likely be determined by more than just the state’s recent lean toward the Republican Party. Over the course of this election, Claire McCaskill has raised just over $30 million and has almost $3.2 million in cash on hand, while her opponent Josh Hawley has raised a little less than $8.5 million and has roughly $3.5 million in cash on hand. Roughly two-thirds of the money spent on the McCaskill campaign has gone towards media buys, primarily television ads. These ads largely focus on Senator McCaskill’s attempts for bipartisanship in Congress, healthcare, and doing what is right for the citizens of Missouri. Alternatively, Josh Hawley’s ads focus on who he is as a candidate, as a family man and a younger candidate for office.
Despite the attention that the race has gathered due to its status as a tossup, the results of the election are still very unpredictable, as Senator McCaskill will need to garner many of the same voters in more blue-leaning urban areas like Kansas City and St. Louis, as she did in 2012, in order to keep her seat in the Senate.