Sophie Chasen is a sophomore honors student studying Political Science and Communications at the University of Arkansas. Sophie is originally from Austin, TX and she is in the Phi Mu Alpha Beta sorority, as well as being involved with numerous groups on campus including the Young Democrats which was recently reinstated. After college, Sophie hopes to go to a law school near her hometown and pursue a career in Constitutional Law. I have been following Maine’s 2nd Congressional District since the beginning of the semester. This district is the 24th largest in the United States, with the second largest Non-Hispanic White population (around 94%). This area is much more rural than the more urban and liberal 1st Congressional District. Unlike most states in America, Maine allocates their electoral votes by “awarding two to the statewide winner and one to the candidate who receives the most votes in each of its two congressional districts” (The Hill). In the 2020 election, Donald Trump won about 52% of the vote in CD2 while Joe Biden won about 45%.
This district is unique because while the citizens voted for a Republican candidate in 2020, there is currently a Democrat who has been representing them in Congress for the last three terms. Jared Golden, the Democrat incumbent, is facing Republican Austin Theriault for a seat in Congress this November. Both of these candidates have attempted to appeal to voters in the other party by running ads that highlight ads normally associated with the other party. For example, “Jared Golden…is running ads where he fires a rifle while Austin Theriault…is pledging to oppose a national ban on abortion” (Washington Post). Most sources show this race as a toss-up, especially as some have said that both candidates are losing many of their base supporters as they try to appeal to more moderate or independent voters. Polls have shown that both candidates have about 38% of support with the other 21% still undecided on how to vote in November (Spectrum Local News).
As far as for the presidential election, the two statewide electoral votes and the 1st Congressional District are safely Harris votes. However, in the 2nd Congressional District, most polls show Donald Trump winning the electoral vote by around 3-9 percentage points. When we add in “one or more notable candidates in addition to Harris and Trump, the inclusion of these names can significantly influence the polling average” (270 To Win). In a poll done by the University of New Hampshire, naming other candidates pushes Harris over the edge and gives her a 5% lead. It also should be noted that 35% of registered voters in this district are not affiliated with either of the two major parties.
Prediction: With all of this being said, I believe that Trump is going to win the 2nd Congressional District because of not only the racial makeup of the district and the large amount of population located in rural areas (around 70%), but also the voting history of these individuals.