Lydia Rainwater is a sophomore honors student majoring in Biology at the University of Arkansas. Originally from Fort Smith, Arkansas, Lydia works for housing as a Resident Assistant and is a member of the Biology Club at the University. After college Lydia plans to go to Medical School.
In each presidential election cycle, New Hampshire has been considered a state to watch, even though their votes almost always end up being blue. Although this state is not as competitive as say Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, or Wisconsin, it is still a state that is watched closely as it could potentially change. This state has participated in all 59 elections and continues to participate through 2024. New Hampshire was first seen as Republican but has voted Democratic since 1992 except for Republican George W. Bush who won by 7,211 votes or 1.27% in one of the closest elections to be seen.
Current polling in the 2024 election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump shows a lead for Kamala with little to no predictability of flipping sides. The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Harris at 50.5% over Donald Trump at 44.3% in the polls as of October 22, 2024. This is good news for Democrats as this lead has a greater gap between the two parties and is likely to continue that way through the election on November 5. The election was also very split in New Hampshire in 2020 with Joe Biden showing a 52.71% lead over Donald Trump’s 45.36%. On the other hand, the 2016 election was almost a tie between the political parties with Hillary Clinton at 47.62% and Donald Trump at 47.25%.
As per usual, New Hampshire had lots of visits and campaign spending during the primary season. The article How Much Did Candidates Spend on the New Hampshire Primary? showed that Niki Haley spent close to $30 million, Trump spend $13 million (and made 16 stops in this state), and Ron DeSantis spent $8 million. For the Democrats, this article showed that Joe Biden was backed heavily in this state and only spent $1.2 million on campaign ads and mail. Even with massive Republican presence in New Hampshire during the early part of the year, Harris remains a clear favorite.
Although New Hampshire is small, its voter turnout was tremendous in 2020. Reading the article Demographics of New Hampshire’s Voting Population showed that almost two-thirds of eligible voters in New Hampshire turned out in the 2020 election. This site also showed the demographics of the voters that will turn out in this state. It showed a slightly higher percent of female voters, a higher percent of older voters, and a very large percentage of Non-Hispanic white voters, which is in line with the state’s demographics.
Prediction: New Hampshire has been a blue battleground state (except for George W. Bush) since 1992, and it seems as though this will continue into the 2024 election with Kamala Harris favored to triumph this state.