Jonny Rankin is a University of Arkansas senior pursuing a B.S. in business administration with a major in information systems. He hails from Morrilton, Arkansas, population: 6,767 and is still adjusting to life in the booming metropolis of Fayetteville. After graduation Jonny will start work as a data analyst while pondering his next steps.
The fact that Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) is even close to Congressman Kevin Cramer (R-ND) in the race for North Dakota’s Class I U.S. Senate seat is a testament not only to Heitkamp herself but also to the power of incumbency. North Dakota went from reliably red (+19.62% for Mitt Romney in 2012) to one of the most Republican-leaning states in the union (+35.73% for Donald Trump in 2016) at the federal level. Yet Heitkamp is down only 8.7 points to Cramer in RealClearPolitics’ polling average.
Yes, “only” 8.7 points. Heitkamp’s first rodeo had her down 5.7 points to Republican Rick Berg on November 6, 2012. She would go on to win that open-seat race by 0.9 points. That’s a 6.6-point overperformance in a year in which Democrats only won the Congressional vote by 1.2 points. Compare this to 2018, where Democrats have a 7.7-point advantage in generic ballot polling. To add to this, Heitkamp now has the advantage of incumbency, and incumbents haven not lost a Senate seat during a midterm in which their party had a “wave” election since before Bill Clinton. Plus Heitkamp has raised nearly $10 million more than Cramer. She has nothing to worry about, right?
Wrong. That 8.7-point average Cramer lead is enough to put North Dakota in the ‘Lean R’ category by FiveThirtyEight, ‘Lean Republican’ by Cook Political Report, and ‘Leans R’ by Sabato’s Crystal Ball. What leads the gold standard political prognosticators to postulate problems for Heitkamp?
Kevin Cramer is a strong candidate for North Dakota. He has voted in line with President Donald Trump’s position 98.9% of the time, 4.5% more than is expected with his state’s partisan lean. That would normally be cause for concern in a year in which the president’s approval rating could be called a disapproval rating. Nationwide voters currently disapprove of Trump by 9.2 points, per FiveThirtyEight. North Dakotans, however, have remained supportive of President Trump, per Morning Consult. This has allowed Cramer to go “all in on the president,” supporting him on trade, tax cuts, and Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination without any repercussions. Trump has rewarded Cramer’s loyalty, visiting North Dakota to campaign for Cramer twice since June.
Heitkamp has mostly followed the “How to Win as a Democrat in a Red State” playbook. She pitched herself as a moderate check on the president in ads, stating that when she agrees with him she will “vote with him,” but when his policies hurt her state, “he knows [she’ll] speak up.” She interviewed for a job in President Trump’s Cabinet and even received a compliment from the president, when he called her a “good woman.” An attempt to show support for sexual assault survivors found Heitkamp with her foot in her mouth, as an ad of hers named victims of sexual assault without their consent and even some who had not been sexually assaulted.
This race is one of the few potential bright spots for Republicans during what looks to be a particularly tough midterm season. Kevin Cramer has managed to ride Trump’s coattails to a sizable polling advantage and will be relying on the typically older, whiter midterm electorate to return to pulling that R lever in a heavily Republican state. Do not be shocked if a rising national Democratic tide lifts the incumbent’s boat to a second consecutive upset victory, but it is clear that Heidi Heitkamp needs a heaping helping hand to remain the state’s Senator.