Sam Harris is a student at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville, Arkansas double-majoring in Agriculture Business/Pre Law and Agriculture Leadership. Throughout high school and college, Sam has taken an active role in politics and activism, standing up for the oppressed, fighting for equal rights and treatment, and staying engaged in all aspects of his community. Sam enjoys connecting his passions with policy to ensure that rural America remains heard.
Often isolated as its own “Island of Red,” the state of Indiana has primarily cast its electoral votes to the GOP. Since 1940 Indiana has only swung Democrat on two occasions—one of those including Barack Obama’s win over John McCain in the 3rd tightest race during the election. However, this was quickly disregarded in the 2012 election where Mitt Romney led Obama by 10+ points, returning Indiana to its original red roots. Indiana has voted Republican all but once in the past 10 presidential elections.
According to independent polling organizations, such as FiveThirtyEight, Trump leads Clinton on average by 11 points in the state on almost any occasion. Furthermore, using the election forecaster on FiveThirtyEight’s online collective polling sight, Trump has an 86% chance of winning in the general election match up compared to Clinton’s 13.9%. Aside from the history of elections in Indiana, there is an array of underlying factors that contribute to the GOP’s successes in-state. I believe that one of these contributors is the demographic make-up of the region. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Indiana’s population is approximately 86% white. Furthermore, there are over 400,000 veterans living in the state and only 4% of the population is said to be foreign born. These demographics brew the perfect storm for a democratic candidate running in Indiana, as Clinton struggles most with the white male vote across the country. Donald Trump has evolved his campaign platform around the idea that all business is fleeing the U.S. and that we have to bring jobs back to our country. When you look at Indiana, most see steel mills and manufacturing that have left the state, only providing fuel for his campaign.
Prediction: When all of these factors play in to the election, alongside having the state’s Governor, Mike Pence, on the ticket, I believe it is safe to say that come November 8th, Indiana will wallow in its past red clay and cast their 11 electoral votes to Donald J. Trump for President of the United States of America.