Mary Beth Kennedy is a junior political science and international relations major at the University of Arkansas. She is an avid political junkie, Netflix binge watcher, and avocado enthusiast.
For the 2016 Presidential Election, the state of Michigan will award its votes in the Electoral College to Hillary Clinton. Michigan has voted for Democratic presidential nominees since 1988 and it is very likely that the trend will continue in 2016. FiveThirtyEight has Clinton sitting with a more than 90% chance of taking the state’s 16 electoral votes. Clinton has had a clear lead over Trump in Michigan since early summer and the most recent polls in the state have Clinton up by nearly 12 points, an advantage that is unlikely to change in the 25 days until the election.
Detroit, the most heavily populated city in the state, employs almost 20% of the state’s population, and is home to some of the most impoverished citizens of Michigan. Only about 68% of students in Detroit receive a high school diploma, and crime rates within Detroit are astronomically higher than the national average in almost every single crime classification. Much of the state’s population relies on manufacturing for employment, which the recession in 2007 dramatically impacted, causing average incomes to fall well below the national average. Nearly 10% of Detroit’s buildings are vacant, which only further contributes to crime issues within the city. The population in Michigan is majority white, but the African American and Hispanic populations have been growing steadily in recent years, a trend that is favorable to Clinton. The state is comprised of almost 80% Christians, but nearly 25% of those identify as Catholic, many of whom typically vote for Democrats.
Prediction: The economic and social issues within Michigan, and more particularly Detroit, would traditionally make the state lean toward the Democrats. Earlier in the election Michigan seemed as though it could be swung to either party due to Trump’s brand of populism and the local government being predominantly conservative, but it is clear that Michigan is not up for grabs in 2016 and will go to Hillary Clinton.