Braden Brown is a junior honors student majoring in political science and minoring in business and legal studies at the University of Arkansas. Braden has worked for his hometown government in Jonesboro, Arkansas for the past few years. After graduation, Braden hopes to go to law school.
The Land of Enchantment has often been considered a presidential swing state because of its tendency to switch back and forth between the two major parties and its large population of Hispanic citizens. New Mexico offers an interesting twist to its voting this year with former New Mexican Governor Gary Johnson running on the Libertarian ticket. Johnson has emerged as the favorite of the third-party candidates. While his support in New Mexico may be larger, the state’s 5 electoral votes are given on a winner-take-all basis and Johnson is highly unlikely to carry the state while running third-party.
According to 270towin.com, New Mexico has voted Democrat in only 14 out of 26 total presidential elections since it was admitted to the union in 1912. Recent polling, however, indicates that New Mexico won’t be as hotly contested as it has been in the past. FiveThirtyEight.com, as of October 10th, gives Hillary Clinton a 93.5% chance to win the state while only giving Donald Trump a 6% chance. The difference in predictive winning percentage seemed to increase dramatically after the first debate on September 26th. From September 28th to October 2nd, SurveyUSA polled 594 licensed voters and found results with Clinton at 46%, Trump at 33%, and former New Mexican Governor Gary Johnson at 14%. The population of New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latino/Hispanic citizens in the nation at 37.4% according to FiveThirtyEight.com. Trump’s strict immigration policy has made it difficult to succeed among the Hispanic communities across the nation and New Mexico’s poll numbers give us a clear indication of this trend.
Prediction: 270towin.com had President Barack Obama defeating Mitt Romney in 2012 53% to 43%. I believe the margin of victory between Clinton and Trump will be around the same at 10 percentage points. Clinton’s number, however, will probably not reach the 50% mark that President Obama did because of the support for Gary Johnson. While Johnson’s support will be higher in New Mexico than other states, this factor will not alter the margin of victory or change the direction of the electorate in any significant way. I predict Hillary Clinton will win New Mexico and carry the 5 electoral votes on November 8th.