Karlie Barnett is a senior honors student majoring in political science and history at the University of Arkansas. A Little Rock native, Karlie is the president of the Mental Health Awareness Organization, a member of Kappa Kappa Gamma, and serves as a Wellness Peer Educator with the Wellness Department. After college, Karlie hopes to pursue a graduate degree in international relations.
The New Hampshire U.S. Senate race has been competitive throughout this year’s election cycle, especially as Democrats fight to keep control of the Senate. This race in particular is between incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Maggie Hassan, who was the governor of New Hampshire prior to her Senate term, and Republican Don Bolduc, a retired U.S. Army general.
While this race has been labeled “lean Democratic” by the Cook Political Report, the advantage of the Democratic party in this race is only slight. Hassan herself won this Senate seat in 2016 by a narrow 1,017 votes. This fact highlights the purple nature of New Hampshire, further seen in how the state voted for Biden in 2020 by 7.4 points, has Democratic U.S. Senators and Representatives, and also has a state Republican trifecta.
This reflection of mixed political preferences is owed to the demographics of the state. New Hampshire is 92% white and largely secular, meaning that the state lacks the reliable voting bases of both Democrats and Republicans. As a result of these factors, the state has a large number of voters who identify with neither party, seen in the 38% of undeclared registered voters in addition to the 31% Democratic and 30% Republican voters. For New Hampshire voters, the top issues that are determining how they cast their ballots are the economy and abortion. 78% of Republicans and 73% of independents state the economy or inflation as the issue most important to them, while 81% of Democrats state women’s rights or abortion as their top issue.
With this sharp divide over top issues, both Hassan and Bolduc have had their work cut out for them on the campaign trail. Hassan has chosen to focus on her status as “most bipartisan senator” of 2021 to distance herself from Biden and emphasize her independent-mindedness. In pursing this, she has highlighted her past bipartisan accomplishments and has underlined her desire to “bring down costs” for families. Beyond the economy, abortion has been another issue Hassan has focused on, which may work in her favor due to the highly pro-choice nature of the state. Still, with an approval rating at 40%, Hassan remains in a precarious position.
Bolduc has opted to reframe himself as a moderate Republican in order to cater to those independent voters that will largely determine this race. Once an election denier, Bolduc reversed his stance on the election following the GOP primary, and he also transitioned from a hardline pro-life stance to one that favors leaving the issue up to the states. Further, Bolduc has touted his “outsider status” and largely zeroed in on the economy and inflation in the lead up to November. In pursuing this strategy, he has consistently tied Hassan to Biden in order to capitalize on Biden’s low approval ratings.
Prediction: Fundraising disparities between these two candidates make the competitive nature of this race interesting. Polls currently place Hassan just 5.3 points ahead of Bolduc, but Bolduc has only spent around $900,000 in comparison to Hassan’s $31 million. Bolduc has largely relied on outside spending, and while some super PACs have pulled funding from the race, other Republican groups have come in to help, signaling that the Republican party is still holding out for this seat. I find myself agreeing with their projection, believing that Bolduc will win despite his lack of incumbency advantage and low fundraising, due to the issues of the economy and inflation being at the top of the minds of most voters, and the historic trend of the midterms being a referendum on the President’s party.