Summer Stallbaumer is a sophomore honors economics major at the University of Arkansas. She is an opinion writer for The Arkansas Traveler and a member of the Walton Honors Program.
Demographically New Hampshire is much more intriguing than I thought it would be. It’s not that the actual racial makeup of the state is surprising, with an electorate that is 93.9% white Americans. The thing that surprised me about New Hampshire was the fact that more than 30% of voters this year were either not old enough to vote in 2008, or did not live in New Hampshire.
Of those currently residing in New Hampshire, only 45% are from the state. Compare that to the national average of 68% of people residing in the state in which they were born. The largest source of migrants moving to New Hampshire are from the Boston metropolitan area.
Another demographic change which will affect this upcoming election is the changing life cycles among New Hampshire’s electorate. Between 2008 and 2015, 129,000 New Hampshire citizens turned 18 years of age. Also, New Hampshire lost 68,000 older voters due to mortality.
What is one thing that the Boston metro and 18 year olds have in common? Their political views. Young voters who have recently gained the right to vote and recent migrants to New Hampshire have a very real capability to make New Hampshire a blue state come this November.
Of the last 10 presidential elections New Hampshire has been a red state 5 times and a blue state 5 times. However, of the last 5 presidential elections New Hampshire has been a blue state all but one time.
I believe this is because of New Hampshire’s changing voter demographics. New Hampshire is welcoming migrants from a more consistently liberal area and expanding their Democratic primary voter base with younger voters. Pair this with a shrinking conservative voting base and an incredibly right-wing candidate who may not bode well with a more moderate state.
Prediction: This election may not be easy for any of us, but it’s easy enough to see through New Hampshire’s spotty voting record by simply looking at the facts. New Hampshire will vote blue and their 4 electoral college votes will be awarded to Hillary Clinton. Unless, of course, Donald Trump comes from behind and “grabs” New Hampshire’s political ideologies by the … .