Ria Collins is a sophomore McAllister Honors College Fellow at the University of Arkansas. She is majoring in business economics and accounting with a minor in political science. Ria is originally from Bentonville and is involved in the Dean’s Student Collaboration Team at the Walton College, works as an Honors College Ambassador, and serves as treasurer on the Honors College Ambassador Executive Board. After graduation, Ria hopes to pursue a career in business and potentially attain an MBA.
Nevada is one of a few key races for control of the Senate in the 2022 midterm elections along with Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Incumbent Democrat Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is defending her seat against Republican Adam Laxalt, Libertarian Neil Scott, and Independents Barry Rubinson and Barry Lindemann. Both leading candidates, Cortez Masto and Laxalt, have experience serving as Nevada’s attorney general: Laxalt from 2015 to 2019 and Cortez Masto from 2007 to 2015 then became senator in 2017. Nevada currently has many highly contested races including the gubernatorial race and the race for the 3rd Congressional District. The state voted with a slight majority of 50.1% of the vote for President Joe Biden in 2020.
Cortez Masto has broken fundraising records in Nevada bringing in $15.2 million in the July through September period. That brings the Senator’s total fundraising to $44,008,15. Laxalt is far behind in fundraising raising $13,340,336 throughout his whole campaign. 85.9% of Cortez Masto’s funds come from out of state, while 71.1% of Laxalt’s fund come from out of state. Along the same track, Cortez Masto has spent almost $30 million more than Laxalt mainly on advertisements. Despite Cortez Masto’s personal fundraising advantage, Laxalt has the advantage outside spending. NPR reports that as of October 22, 2022, $69.2 million has been spent on ads to support Laxalt by outside groups, while $62.3 million has been spent for the same on ads to support Cortez Masto. Adam Laxalt and his supporting groups have spent more on ads about inflation than Republicans have in any other congressional race. He ties voter’s pocketbook issues directly to Senator Cortez Masto and her support Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and Democrats’ pandemic stimulus funding. Cortez Masto on the other hand tied inflation to Laxalt’s corporate ties in her attack ads on inflation.
One key demographic for both candidates is Latino voters as Latino support for Democrats has declined over the last few election cycles. In 2020, Pew Research Center reported that Latinos made up nearly 20% of eligible voters in Nevada. Despite decline in Latino support of Democrats, Cortez Masto still has a large margin of 33 points over Laxalt with Latino voters, according to recent Univision News poll. Despite her lead with Latinos, Cortez Masto is still in a dead heat according to FiveThrityEight’s advanced model. As of October 27, 2022, Laxalt is predicted to win 53 out of 100 times, while Cortez Masto wins 47 out of 100 times. The forecast has changed drastically with the gap between the 2 leading candidates closing within the last month.
Unlike most other Senate races this election cycle, this Nevada senate race is the only battleground race without a debate before the midterms. NBC News reports that both candidates blame their opponents for no debates in this race. With the candidates polling in a dead heat, debating could hurt either candidate when they are most vulnerable. Since this race could determine control of the Senate, it is even more unusual that voters are unlikely to see a debate between the two candidates.
Prediction: Overall, the Nevada Senate race is purely a toss-up. Republican Adam Laxalt has been able to close the gap in the polls, but incumbent Democrat Cortez Masto has the campaign fundraising and spending advantage that may be able to successfully defend her seat for another term.