Addie Jones is a junior honors student majoring in journalism and political science with minors in gender studies, nonprofit studies, and rhetoric writing studies. On campus, she is involved in organizations including the Arkansas Traveler, Volunteer Action Center, and Headliners Concert Committee. After graduation, Addie hopes to attend law school.
Though Nevada has the least electoral votes out of the key battleground states, it could still play a key role in deciding the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump essentially tied in the polls.
Nevada has a history as a “bellwether state” – since 1976, Democrat and Republican candidates have won Nevada six times each, and the winner there has gone on to win the White House in ten of the last 12 elections. The Republican candidate (George W. Bush) took Nevada in 2000 and 2004, but Democrats have won since 2008. Donald Trump’s first win in 2016 was the closest Republicans have come to taking back the state since. The state having two Democratic senators yet a Republican governor in Joe Lombardo contributes to a significantly polarized political climate.
Nevada’s population is 45.4% non-Hispanic white, 29.9% Hispanic, 11% Black, and 9.7% Asian. About 75% of its residents reside in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, and another 15% in Washoe County, which includes Reno. In the last two presidential elections, 15 of Nevada’s 17 counties voted Republican. However, the two counties that did not – Clark and Washoe – make up almost 90% of Nevada’s population, emphasizing the idea that “land does not vote.”
Key issues in this state do not vary much from the rest of the nation. Economic struggles likely remain on top of mind, especially due to Nevada’s high unemployment rate and rising housing costs. While Harris might be able to appeal to the middle-class working voter, Trump still likely has the advantage in this area. The Nevada Independent CEO and editor Jon Ralston has gained a reputation for accurately predicting election results, and though he has not made his prediction for this year yet, he does think the economy will swing vote toward Trump.
However, Kamala’s focus on the housing crisis might work in her favor in the state with the most severe housing shortage, most prominent in Las Vegas. Additionally, Democrats hope the Hispanic population, young people’s ability to mail-in ballots, and a state amendment to protect abortion rights will drive progressive voters to the polls. Recent numbers show a tight race between Harris and Trump. Early voting turnout has been high, mainly among registered Republicans, but this could easily change as we approach election day.
Prediction: Despite the majority of Nevada’s counties and early voters leaning Republican, I still believe the diverse population and concentration of voters in Clark and Washoe will lead to a narrow Kamala win. The state’s historical voting record, demographic advantages, and shift to a primarily mail-in ballot state all point in her favor. Nevada is a mirror of the nation, a true battleground state, and a definite factor in who will be the next president of the United States.