Eva Allen is a sophomore honors student majoring in public health with a minor in Spanish. A native of Little Rock, Arkansas, she is a member of both Delta Delta Delta and Alpha Epsilon Delta, the pre-medical honor society. After college, Eva plans to pursue a dual M.D./M.P.H degree from UAMS and use her expertise to better the well-being of Arkansans.
Missouri has been a solidly red state in presidential elections since the 2000 election of President George W. Bush. Throughout the 20th century, Missouri was considered a swing state, being that the winner of Missouri’s electoral votes won the presidency all but one time between 1904 and 2004. It was blue for a stint in 1992 and 1996, with President Bill Clinton winning the state twice, but quickly turned Republican and has remained that way since. This year, the recent Republican leaning of the state does not seem to have wavered much.
In 2016, Trump won Missouri by almost 19%. In 2020, he does not appear to be ahead of challenger Vice President Joe Biden by nearly as great a margin, but he is still ahead nonetheless. There was some concern in the summer that the state could flip blue. A Five Thirty Eight polling average from July had Trump only two points above Joe Biden, an eerily small margin compared to that of his 2020 win. However, that margin has continued to grow in Trump’s favor. The latest Missouri Scout poll of likely voters from October 14-15th shows Trump up six points against Biden, a secure margin for the incumbent president.
Demographically, Missouri is largely rural with pockets of urban areas. Rural voters across the country vote largely Republican, especially southern ones, while urban voters usually side with the Democratic party. In St. Louis, for example, 78.7% of the population voted Democrat in the 2016 presidential election. St. Louis also has a higher number of Black voters than is present throughout the rest of the state with 45.3% of the city’s population being African-American, a demographic that strongly leans toward Democratic candidates. Although the urban areas contain many Democratic voters, the urban votes have not overpowered those of the rural in recent elections.
In addition to the presidential race, Missouri has a gubernatorial race this election cycle. President Trump endorsed Republican incumbent Governor Mike Parson in a tweet in September of 2019. The Republican governor leads by 7 points in the latest Cygnal poll of likely voters, a lead similar to that of President Trump. There are also several Missouri elections for the House of Representatives this cycle, but one is much tighter than the rest. Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner and Democratic state senator Jill Schupp are competing in a toss-up race for Missouri’s 2nd district. This district encompasses the suburbs of St. Louis and thus shows the mix in suburban sentiment for Trump and the Republican party.
Prediction: Although President Trump’s polling margins in Missouri are not near as large now as they were when Trump won the state in 2016, based on current polling and Missouri demographics and recent election history, I predict the state will be a fairly easy win for the incumbent President.