Will Hadley is a freshman honors student from Fayetteville, Arkansas, studying geography and environmental science at the University of Arkansas. He is involved with the Razorback Marching Band, Students for Refugees and Recyclebacks, and is an Honors College Fellow. After graduating, Will hopes to pursue a career in sustainability.
Iowa’s 1st congressional district, representing the northeast corner of the state and containing cities like Cedar Rapids and Dubuque, could easily become a success story for Democrats, just as the DCCC envisioned earlier this year with the district’s inclusion in the “Red to Blue” program. Composed largely of “pivot counties” that voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016, this district will see the Republican incumbent Rod Blum, a former businessman and self-described tea-partyer who votes with Trump over 90% of the time, face off against Democratic challenger Abby Finkenauer, a moderate member of the Iowa House of Representatives. Once considered a “toss-up” by The Cook Political Report, this race is now ranked as “Lean Democratic.”
For much of the campaign, both sides’ primary strategy has been to appeal to the district’s large population of white, blue-collar workers, especially in Iowa’s vital agricultural industry. The exact way that each campaign has done this has differed greatly. In his television ads, for example, Blum emphasizes his extensive experience in the private sector, describing his self-made climb from poverty and affirming his role in recent tax cuts and economic prosperity. Finkenauer also invokes a personal anecdote, describing her father’s life as a union worker, and has tapped into the continued hardships faced by the middle and working classes, especially with respect to income inequality and the continued threats to healthcare coverage. Some issues specific to the agriculture industry saw discussion in the candidates’ televised debates, as Finkenauer noted that the looming danger of trade wars and the failure to pass a farm bill poses two GOP-induced threats to the state’s main industry. These appeals to the anxieties of the constituency undoubtedly helped the Finkenauer campaign, as polls from organizations like The New York Times began to show.
Early Democratic optimism allowed Finkenauer’s campaign to raise $3,540,164, significantly more money than Blum’s $2,333,789. Finkenauer has also outspent Blum so far in the campaign. The fact that much of Finkenauer’s funds came from outside Iowa shows the extent to which Democrats saw an opportunity in this district, and the additional funds certainly enabled Finkenauer’s campaign to be successful. However, much of Blum’s decreasing competitiveness has come about in the wake of the ongoing House ethics investigation into him. According to the Des Moines Register’s Barbara Rodriguez, the investigation is “linked to the congressman’s failure earlier this year to publicly disclose his involvement in a company.” This investigation, in addition to the congressman’s subsequent outbursts claiming media coverage has been unfair, further sank Blum’s approval numbers.
As of now, it appears that the election is shifting more and more in favor of a Democratic victory. In fact, Blum’s outlook has become so bleak that the National Republican Congressional Committee and Congressional Leadership Fund have effectively withdrawn their resources from the race. Although Blum still has a substantial amount of cash on hand, this development indicates that GOP officials have lost hope for the district. FiveThirtyEight has even shifted the race into the “Solid D” category and predicts a 96.8% likelihood of Finkenauer winning with a forecasted 55.2% of the vote. Only time will tell the true fate of Iowa’s first district, but all signs predict Democratic success.