Lauren Petty is a freshman honors student from Little Rock who is studying finance and political science. She is an Honors College Fellow, a member of the Future Women Business Leaders organization and an Honors College Ambassador.
Kansas is an anomaly in the 2022 governorship races as the only governorship Democrats are defending in 2022, in a state Donald Trump carried in 2020. In 2018, Democrat Laura Kelly was elected governor of Kansas and ended the trifecta control Republicans had over the state government for eight years. Kelly’s victory was even more surprising considering Republican candidate Donald Trump won the state with 57.2% of the vote in 2016. Also, there has not been a Democratic majority in either chamber of the Kansas State Legislature since 1992. The Kansas governorship is on the ballot again in the 2022 midterms. Laura Kelly is running for governor again against the Republican candidate Derek Schmidt. Also, the Kansas Attorney General is elected on a joint ticket with the governor. Laura Kelly’s running mate vying for attorney general is David Toland, the current Lieutenant Governor of Kansas and Secretary of the Kansas Department of Commerce. Katie Sawyer, a senior constituent services professional in the Kansas congressional delegation, is running for Kansas attorney general on the ticket with Schmidt.
Laura Kelly served in the Kansas State Senate from 2005 to 2019 before becoming governor. In the 2018 Kansas governor race, she defeated the Republican candidate Kris Kobach by five percentage points. Kelly’s campaign emphasizes her status as a moderate Democrat. Kelly even described herself as “not too far right or too far left… pretty middle of the road” in a campaign advertisement released in April 2022. Her social media has centered her campaign around increasing funding for education, improving infrastructure, and strengthening the economy. Kelly’s campaign is highlighting how as a moderate she has brought Republicans and Democrats together to solve problems for Kansans, such as the record budget surplus, increase in funding for education, and repair of roads across the state that have occurred while she has been in office.
Derek Schmidt is the Republican candidate for the Governor of Kansas. He was first elected as the attorney general of Kansas in 2010 and re-elected in 2014 and 2018. His campaign is focusing on the negative effects the 2020 COVID-19 school lockdowns had on education, crime rates, abortion, unemployment rates in the state, and border security. Former president Donald Trump has released a video stating his full support for Schmidt saying that “He’s strong on the border. He’s strong on crime and he’s going to fight taxes. “He’s going to be a governor, unlike few others. He’s tough, he’s smart and he has a big heart.” Schmidt has also been endorsed by former Vice President Mike Pence who visited Wichita in support of Republican candidates in the Nov. 8 midterm election. Schmidt’s campaign has highlighted these endorsements and his status as a conservative candidate unafraid to go up against Democratic Party leaders.
The two candidates attended a gubernatorial debate on October fifth. Interestingly, both candidates spoke about their support for the legalization of medical marijuana. In 2021, the Kansas House of Representatives approved a bill legalizing topical, edible and non-smokable for certain medical conditions, but the bill stalled in the Kansas Senate. The twodisagreed on the topic of transgender athletes competing in women’s sports. Kelly has vetoed bills banning transgender athletes from competing in women’s sports twice because she believes it should be left up to local school boards and “is not happening here in Kansas.” Kelly touted how increased funding for law enforcement has occurred under her watch as governor, but she believed immigration policy was better left to the state’s congressional delegation. Schmidt argued for a more aggressive immigration policy at the federal level to prevent the spread of illicit drugs into the state to stop the “public health and public safety issue for moms and dads here… around this state.”
One of the most significant aspects of this race is the potential effect of the Dobbs v. Jackson’s Womens Health Organization Supreme Court case decision on voters in Kansas. In Kansas in the week following the court’s decision, more than 70% of newly registered voters were women. This rise in registration itself will not have a significant effect on the election, but the significant increase in registration among women in the state highlights how the Dobbs ruling has motivated women to go vote, which is to the advantage of Democratic candidates in the state. On August 2, 2022, Kansans voted on the Value Them Both proposed state constitutional amendment which would have altered the reserved right to an abortion enshrined in the Kansas State Constitution. A vote “yes” is in favor of the elimination of the constitutional right to an abortion in Kansas, while a vote of “no” is in favor of keeping the law as is. 59% of voters voted no while 49% voted yes which affirmed the constitutional right to an abortion in Kansas. Schmidt has incorporated decreasing access to abortions into his platform, but he is more focused on other issues. Laura Kelly has shied away from the issue throughout her campaign unlike most other Democratic candidates across the country.
At this moment, 46% of Kansas voters identify as or lean Republican while 31% identify as or lean Democrat. The demographics of the 2.937,880 population are 75.6% White, 5.7% African American, 2.9% Asian, 1.1% Native American, 13% Hispanic, and 9.5% two or more races. Also, 43.1% of voters are college educated. These demographics favor Derek Schmidt because caucasian voters and those who did not attend college are more likely to vote Republican. Emerson College conducted a poll on the 2022 Kansas gubernatorial race from September fifteenth to the eighteenth. The poll found that the incumbent Kelly had a two-point lead over Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt, with 45% to 43% of the vote respectively. Dennis Pyle is predicted to receive around 3% of the vote. The poll found that women are more likely to vote for Kelly 51% to 36%, while men are more likely to vote for Schmidt 51% to 38%. Even though President Biden has a 36% approval rating, 53% of Kansas voters currently view Laura Kelly favorably. Derek Schmidt is viewed favorably by approximately 45% and is unheard of or viewed naturally by 20% of voters in the state.
Prediction: The race will come down to if the state’s Republican majority goes to the polls and votes for the Republican candidate Derek Schmidt. It appears that the increased mobilization of female, Democratic voters by the Supreme Court’s Dobbs Decision and the appeal of Laura Kelly’s reputation as a moderate Democrat to centrist voters will tilt the election in her favor.