Grace Staples is a senior honors student majoring in psychology and minoring in human development and family sciences at the University of Arkansas. She was born and raised in Austin, Texas and currently serves as the President of Psi Chi. After college, Grace plans to pursue a doctoral degree in neuropsychology.
Maine is just one of two states that doesn’t operate on a “winner-take-all” basis for their presidential elections. Normally, the candidate winning the popular vote in a state receives all of the electoral votes. However, Maine practices split electoral vote allocation, giving two electoral votes to its statewide winner and one to the winner of each of its two congressional districts.
Generally, Maine is considered a blue state, with Hillary Clinton winning the statewide popular vote by 3 points in 2016. However, Trump defeated Clinton 51% to 41% in the 2nd district that year. This was surprising considering the last time any of Maine’s electoral votes had gone to a Republican was in 1988.
As the largest district east of the Mississippi, Maine’s 2nd congressional district leans Republican but is not reliably red. Being the second most rural district in the US, it covers most of the state away from Portland, Augusta and nearby coastal areas. What makes this swing district so unpredictable is its independent streak, yet in 9 of the past 12 presidential elections, the 2nd district has backed the White House winner, including the last three.
The few other districts that award electoral votes Maine’s 1st and those in Nebraska, are solidly in Democratic or GOP hands. Trump took notice of the value of Maine’s 2nd district vote this last election. “You have to get one in Maine,” he told the New York Times shortly after winning the presidency, “so we kept going back to Maine and we did get one in Maine.”
Despite Biden showing significant statewide lead into the double digits in most polls, the latest polls for district two show conflicting predictions with slim margins across the board. According to a Bangor Daily News survey on October 6, Trump was predicted to win 49% to Biden’s 41%. However, according to Pan Atlantic Research survey on October 15, Biden was predicted to win 47% to Trump’s 43%. Polling averages show even closer margins, with Trump ahead by less than one percent.
In addition, Maine will be the first state in US history to use ranked choice voting for a presidential election. This allows voters to rank each presidential candidate in order of preference for this November’s election. Ballots will include 5 candidates: President Donald Trump (R), Democrat Joe Biden, Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, Green Howard Hawkins, and Rocky De La Fuenta of the Alliance Party. This system is often referred to as “instant run-off voting” because it only goes into effect if one candidate isn’t the top pick on more than 50% of ballots. The decision to use this system could make a real difference in this year’s election in Maine, after Clinton won the state by fewer than 3 percentage points in 2016, while more than 7% of voters picked a third-party candidate.
Prediction: People tend to underestimate the power of Maine’s unpredictable but influential 2nd congressional district. Based on Biden’s strong lead statewide and Trump’s declining status in the polls, I predict Maine will give all of its electoral votes to the Democratic party this year. In a matter of days, we will see if this rural district will make or break Trump’s 2020 reelection and determine America’s political course for generations to come.