Noah Pittman is the instructor for this fall’s Honors College Forum, Midterm Elections. Noah serves as the associate dean of enrollment for the University of Arkansas Honors College. His doctorate is in public policy, with a focus on higher education policy. He’s married to his beautiful wife, Pamela, and they have two children, Bennett, an energetic 7-year-old who enjoys both martial arts and singing in the UA Children’s Choir, and Ella, a precocious 4-year-old who loves her dance studio and every Disney princess ever invented. If you’re interested in tweets on politics, American higher education, or the occasional rant about the Atlanta Braves or the Memphis Grizzlies, you can follow him on Twitter, @NoahPittman.
Six years ago, Honors College Dean Lynda Coon challenged me in just the span of a few weeks to create a course that would allow students to learn about political forecasting and track the 2016 election. This is the fourth iteration of the course, this year focused on the 2022 Midterm Elections. Each week, I’m fortunate to have class with 13 outstanding honors students in our Gearhart Hall first-floor conference room. Each student was assigned a competitive House race to track along with a statewide race. The posts that follow will analyze their assigned statewide race. Some of these races are more competitive than others, but overall, our students have done a great job presenting their arguments.
As we prepare for Election Day, a few themes to consider:
Red Wave? Aside from George W. Bush in 2002, the party of the first-term President has struggled in the midterms over the past several decades. With Joe Biden’s approval ratings hovering in the low 40s, the Republican Party is the overwhelming favorite to secure a majority in the House of Representatives. The key question, though, is what will happen in the U.S. Senate. For months, prognosticators gave the Democrats a slight edge, but as of today, this looks to be a pure toss up. My recommendation? Keep a close eye on the Senate races in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The party that wins at least two out of three of these states will be the overwhelming favorite to have a majority in the Senate.
What will we know at the end of Election Night? Remember in 2020 when it took a couple of months after Election Day to figure out which party would have the Senate majority? That’s due to the runoff law in Georgia, where statewide candidates have to win a majority of the vote to win the seat. There is a good chance at this point that neither Raphael Warnock nor Herschel Walker will be able to win a majority this Tuesday. If that turns out to be the case, there would be a runoff election in December. I hope the people of Georgia are mentally preparing for wall-to-wall political ads, especially if the seat will decide the Senate majority.
Who will emerge as presidential candidates for 2024? The 2024 election is already shaping up to be yet another intriguing presidential cycle. Will Joe Biden run for reelection? What will Donald Trump do? If Trump runs, who, if anyone, in the Republican Party will step up to give him a primary challenge? Keep a particularly close eye on Trump-endorsed candidates the night of the election. At the same time, look at nationally recognized figures who will want to “run up the score” in their own races, including Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio and Greg Abbott.
Hope you enjoy these blog posts!