Courtney Cooper is a junior honors student majoring in horticulture with agriculture business and sustainability minors at the University of Arkansas. Originally from Lawrence, Kansas, Courtney is on the executive board for her sorority, Alpha Omicron Pi, and active in several campus organizations, including Bumpers Honors Board and the Horticulture Club. After graduating, Courtney plans on entering the Peace Corps before studying local food systems in graduate school.
As one of the 13 original colonies, Georgia has voted in every election except 1864 due to secession. From 1868 to 1960, they voted Democrat in every single election. However, in 1964, due to the Civil Rights Act, Georgia voted Republican (for Goldwater over Johnson). Since then Georgia has consistently voted Republican except for when a Southern Democrat was running (Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton both received support). Due to a rise in population, Georgia holds 16 electoral votes this year, only outnumbered by 7 states.
Prediction: As history suggests, it seems clear that Georgia will again vote Republican in this election. According to FiveThirtyEight as of October 14th, Donald Trump has a 74% chance of winning Georgia. His lead has been strong by as much as 12 points since his nomination, except for the first week of August when polls had Hillary Clinton in the lead. Trump’s lead did fall significantly after the now infamous tapes with Billy Bush were released but has since recovered and is increasing with every poll.
Most of Trump’s support has come not from influential GOP donors, but instead from individuals spending $250 or less per donation. Many “big-money” donors have held back when endorsing Trump due to his populist rhetoric, attacks on large donors, and trade policies, causing a divide in many Georgia Republicans just as we have seen in the GOP as a whole. However, his recent support over the summer and especially August has paid off – in June alone he saw $280,000 in donations from Georgia compared to Clinton’s $260,000.
Much as we have seen nationally, Trump’s support in Georgia does not come from big businesses, white collar individuals, or prolific Republican super PACs. Instead, the long history of Georgia as a consistently red state combined with his grassroots support from individuals will be what carries him to win the 16 electoral votes that Georgia has to offer.