Caden Hall is a senior honors student studying political science, criminology and sociology, and a few minors as well. Caden originates from Bella Vista and currently dedicates his time to his internship with Trike Theatre and several undergraduate research projects. After graduation, Caden hopes to obtain his Masters in Public Administration after a potential gap year.
All eyes are on the Senate for this midterm cycle. After a national resurgence of Republican support in the polls promptly squashed what little hope Democrats had of keeping control of both chambers, focus has instead shifted to whether they’ll be able to hold any chamber at all come November 8. In a striking echo to the 2020 Senate elections, Georgia is, yet again, perhaps the single most important state in either party’s eyes. The previous Republican stronghold has recently lightened to a purple color in its federal elections, with Democrats sweeping both available Senate seats in the aforementioned 2020 elections– a feat largely attributed to the efforts of Stacey Abrams, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in the same state. Abrams faces a rematch against incumbent governor Brian Kemp as Raphael Warnock defends his recently acquired seat in the upper chamber.
Republican resources have been concentrated in Georgia after the disappointing 2020 results. Three GOP outposts have been established in metro Atlanta specifically aimed at recruiting minority votes to Republican candidate Herschel Walker. Additionally, almost $50 million in outside spending has been raised against incumbent Raphael Warnock, with another $13 million raised in support of Walker. Despite this, Warnock still surpasses Walker in total contributions; his September 30th numbers were at $86 million raised and $22 still on hand, dwarfing Walker’s comparative $31 million raised and $7 million on hand. With such a large influx of funds coming from both sides, it’s no surprise that election forecast website 538 deems the Georgia Senate election a “dead heat.” However, the context of this election within the various others going on in the state illuminates the situation a bit more. In the gubernatorial race, Stacey Abrams is about to make history by being the first African-American woman nominated by a major party to lose twice to the same guy. The Georgia House races will reward Republicans with at least nine out of the fifteen available seats, cementing the state as firmly red in every other federal election.
The U.S. Senate race remains tight despite recent accusations of Walker of previously paying for abortions, a series of extra-marital controversies that have haunted Walker over the past few months of the race (among many others). To make matters worse from the Republican perspective, Warnock appears to be unleashing his $22 million reserves as a flurry of attack ads have appeared against Walker, with Warnock himself finally going on the offense after maintaining a mainly positive, support-building campaign. Yet, even when facing the brunt of a blitz attack, Walker’s support in the polls remains strong. Frankly, if his comments on China’s bad air weren’t going to dissuade any voters, it’s no surprise that further gaffs and controversies have had no large effect on his chances. Abortion remains an important issue in this year’s midterm elections and the controversy could impact Walker’s chances. That said, polling data does indicate that economic issues such as inflation are driving voter decisions this year more than anything else.
Prediction: Despite rampant abortion controversies and continually perplexing comments about insulin, Warnock’s personal healthcare, and his claims of previous service in law enforcement, the race remains a toss up. All things considered, though, I do see Walker coming out on top in this election, even if the race goes to a December runoff. The thinning margin of victory for Warnock in the polls only stands to support this outcome, pitting the Democrats in a very tough spot if they hope to retain a semblance of their current congressional control after the election.