Chandler White is a senior Honors Student at the University of Arkansas studying political science. Chandler is from Little Rock and is both a Chancellor’s Scholar and Governor’s Distinguished Scholar. After graduation, Chandler plans to attend law school, where he hopes to obtain a J.D. Degree and an MBA.
Even though the 2024 Presidential Election is two years away, Florida’s gubernatorial race between Republican incumbent Ron DeSantis, and Democratic challenger Charlie Crist could have major implications on the future presidential election landscape. Over the course of his first term as governor, Ron DeSantis has become a darling of the Republican party, and is viewed by many to be a major force within the party for years to come. Charlie Crist, on the other hand, is the former Republican governor of Florida, serving from 2007-2011, before joining the Democratic Party in 2012, and becoming the Congressman for Florida’s 13th District from 2017 until 2022, when he resigned his seat to focus on the gubernatorial race. Crist won the Democratic Primary in August over Florida’s Commissioner of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Nikki Fried, by 24.5 percentage points, collecting 885,699 votes to Fried’s 522,731 votes, while DeSantis was unopposed in his efforts to retain the Republican nomination.
The importance of Florida’s gubernatorial election is not based upon the potential for the Democratic party to gain control of Florida’s state house, but instead due to the implications it has on the geopolitical landscape of the United States in future elections, along with the potential ramifications it may have on the 2024 Presidential Election. Florida has long been viewed as a key swing state when it comes to presidential, senate, and gubernatorial elections, but recent trends suggest that Florida could be beginning to lean Republican, with Donald Trump winning the state by 1 percentage point over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Presidential Election, and then widening the gap over Joe Biden in 2020, winning by 3.3 percentage points in that election. Also, since November 2021, there were 6,035 more active registered Republicans than Democrats, where now, as of October 26, 2022, there are 305,590 more active registered Republicans than Democrats. If DeSantis were to win by double-digit percentage points this year, after winning by just .4 percentage points over Andrew Gillum in 2018, the large margin would add credibility to the growing notion that Florida is trending towards becoming a strong state in favor of the Republican party. A double-digit DeSantis victory could also help to grow DeSantis’s support within the Republican party for a potential presidential bid in 2024, as a strong victory this year would show members of the Republican party that DeSantis has a strong, growing rapport with voters in a state that is always key in helping Republican candidates secure the presidency.
As Florida’s gubernatorial race currently stands, all signs point towards a strong victory for Ron DeSantis, as RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and Politico all project DeSantis to retain his seat as Florida’s Governor. RealClearPolitics, currently have their RCP Polling Average as DeSantis +11.2, while FiveThirtyEight’s Polling Average currently has DeSantis +10. If these polling numbers translate to election day, Governor DeSantis will be able to win the Florida Governorship with the largest margin since Republican Jeb Bush defeated Democrat Bill McBride by 12.8 points in 2002. Ron DeSantis is also winning the fundraising battle over Charlie Crist, as the DeSantis campaign recently broke the gubernatorial fundraising record, where, as of September 16, 2022, the DeSantis campaign had successfully raised $177 million in their fundraising efforts. Crist, on the other hand, had only raised $20 million as of September 9th, 2022.
Prediction: If Ron DeSantis wishes to run for President of the United States in 2024, he has to be able to win and run up some relatively large margins against his opponent, Charlie Crist, and recent polling, election trends, and fundraising all show that DeSantis is poised to do exactly that on election day. DeSantis only won by .4 points in 2018, but I can confidently project that DeSantis wins big, by double digits, on November 8.