Jake Kyte is a senior Honors College Fellow at the University of Arkansas, studying journalism and political science with a concentration in advertising and public relations. Born in Washington, D.C., and raised in Ruston, Louisiana, Jake is a reporter for The Arkansas Traveler and also works as the editorial director for the U of A chapter of Spoon University.
Trump needs Pennsylvania. Plain and simple. Without it, he has no chance. Unfortunately for him, it’s unlikely. According to FiveThirtyEight’s projection on October 14, Clinton has an 89% chance of carrying Pennsylvania. Using 270ToWin’s interactive map to create a possible scenario, it becomes clear that the state is a must-win for Donald.
Take a look below:
Using a combination of polling from FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Politics to decide a few states currently contested, this map represents a scenario that, first, is unlikely, but second, a dream for Trump. Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and New Mexico are all swing states drastically in favor of Clinton, and therefore basically a wash for Mr. Trump. However, I’ve given other major swing states, and even ones slightly favoring Clinton, to Trump. Even with Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, and North Carolina, Trump still only gets to 259, tying Clinton.
Pennsylvania on paper seems like a conservative dream. According to U.S. Census data, the state is 82% white, only 28% are college-educated, and almost 20% percent of the population is aged 65 or older. These are huge voting blocks for the conservatives, so it begs the question – why is Trump not polling well there?
I think there are a few key factors. One is very easy to spot – Trump is simply not spending enough in the state. His weak ground game is not able to compete against the almost $1.7 million being spent by Hillary on television ads, according to Bloomberg Politics. In fact, Clinton has outpaced Trump by huge margins in TV ad spending across the country, not just in Pennsylvania.
Prediction: It’s worth noting that it’s not impossible for Trump to win Pennsylvania. Despite the fact that Pennsylvania has voted Democrat since 2000, the margins have always been close. If there’s a major slip from the Clinton campaign about the economy or median income workers, Trump could carry the vote. However, I think that Clinton will win the state with no trouble.