Colin Gonzalez is a second-year student at the University of Arkansas. He is from Mansfield, Texas and is currently working towards degrees in both political science and environmental science. He also serves as the director of public relations for Recyclebacks and deputy to the Associated Student Government treasurer. Upon graduation from the U of A, he plans to attend law school and eventually practice environmental law.
The Salt Lake Tribune said it best, “It is time to get serious.”
The paper operates out of the Mormon state of Utah, a state that has not voted Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. However, on October 12, 2016 the paper endorsed Hillary Clinton to be their presidential nominee. This must be concerning to the Trump campaign because Utah is a state with classic Republican values, the most prominent one being religion. More than half of the state identifies as Mormon with some polls going so far as to say three-quarters of the population identify as such. These demographics should typically lean heavily toward a Republican win in the state.
Religion may not play as large a role in any other state due to the fact that the entire community is so incredibly homogenous. Many of the state’s officials, like Rep. Jason Chaffetz, Rep. Mia Love, Rep. Chris Stewart, and Governor Gary Herbert, have all come out condemning Trump and his bid for the presidency. Former Governor Jon Hunstman and Senator Mike Lee publicly called for Trump to drop out of the race. These are some of the most prominent Mormon politicians in the country with the majority of them governing and representing Utahans. So, why is the state so defiantly red?
Deseret News, a newspaper extremely popular among Mormons in the state, published a Y2 Analytics poll which had Trump and Clinton in a tie if the election were held today. The poll also included a conservative independent candidate by the name of Evan McMullin. This former CIA officer placed just under Clinton and Trump, winning 22% of the popular vote in Utah.
Prediction: Despite the popular media and the stance of most political leaders in the state, the majority of polls have Trump safely in the red. FiveThirtyEight has Trump winning with a likelihood of 92.4% in the Polls plus forecast and 77.0% in the Now-cast. While his lead is dropping it is still far too significant for Utah to be considered a swing state. However, if he keeps up his current behavior (all trends lead me to believe he will), then it is his state to lose.