Zana N. English is a fourth-year student majoring in international relations and political science in the J. William Fulbright College of Arts and Sciences and economics within the Sam M. Walton College of Business. Originally from Marianna, Arkansas, Zana is actively involved in a number of activities on campus and holds various leadership roles, most notably in Associated Student Government and Pi Sigma Alpha. After college Zana hopes to pursue a law degree in international law.
There was a time when winning Missouri meant winning the presidency. From 1904 to 2004, Missouri voted for the winner of all but one presidential election (1956 was the exception). However, Missouri’s skills of prediction have been called into question since the 2008 and 2012 election cycles, where Barack Obama won the presidential election without Missouri’s support. In fact, the ten-point margin by which Mitt Romney won in 2012 indicates that Missouri is starting to become more comfortable with being a red state. This election cycle, the “Show Me” state will show the color red to the nation again, but the bigger question is whether it will once again correctly predict the outcome of the national election. And what does that mean for the future of party politics in the state?
Prediction: Since August, Missouri has been firmly set as a Trump stronghold. Even after the first and second presidential debates, and the recent release of the 2005 video showing Donald Trump making disturbing comments about his relationship with women, Trump has averaged an 8.0 lead over Hillary Clinton in Missouri.
Nationwide, however, Clinton has been leading in the polls by as many as 7.0 points. By looking at the party affiliation of the candidates over the past ten presidential election cycles, Missouri has not voted for a Democratic candidate since 1996, when President Bill Clinton defeated Senator Bob Dole. Since then, Missouri has voted strictly Republican. Should Hillary win the election in November, Missouri will lose its status as a bellwether and settle in as a Republican stronghold. With the death of one bellwether state, it will be interesting to see if a new one rises from the ashes and takes Missouri’s place for the 21st century.