Matthew Pollard is a junior honors student majoring in political science at the University of Arkansas. Originally from Fort Smith, Matthew has been involved with several on-campus activities, such as being a senator in the Associated Student Government and a star witness for the Mock Trial Program. After college, Matthew hopes to attend law school.
This fiery race includes a nationally-acclaimed former astronaut, Mark Kelly, representing the Democratic party. On the side, representing the Grand Old Party is venture capitalist and protege of Peter Thiel, Blake Masters. For a large portion of this campaign cycle, Masters’ campaign has been considered dead in the water, but the latest polling numbers have shown that the distance between him and opponent Kelly is getting narrower by the day. One anonymous individual linked to the Kelly campaign has even gone on record saying, “We believe this is a race that’s within a point in either direction, and there’s still a good chance that we would lose, and it’s important people understand that.”
The polls show clearly that the progress made by the Masters campaign should concern the Kelly campaign. The polling average in mid-August put the numbers at 51.1% to 40.9% in favor of Kelly. Still, the latest polling average shows that this margin is narrowing, with Kelly at 47.8% and Masters at 43.4%. Additionally, a large amount of Republican-aligned money has been pumped into the state in the past few weeks. Especially worrisome for the Democrats is billionaire Peter Thiel, Blake Masters’s mentor, doubling down on the massive amount of money he is donating to ensure that his protege wins the seat.
The two candidates seem to be pure opposites, with Kelly being endorsed by President Biden and Masters being endorsed by former President Trump. I sincerely believe that the results of this election will be influenced heavily by the people’s general approval of President Biden, and unfortunately for Mark Kelly, Biden’s approval rating is back down to 40% at a very critical point before the midterm elections. On the other hand, Donald Trump is currently dealing with various legal issues and potential faults that have been very heavily present within the news media cycle.
Some posit that nationwide results of this midterm election cycle will serve as a referendum on the Trump administration and the political influence still held by Trump. I myself do not disagree with this statement wholly. Still, I think the results of this election will much better reflect the American people’s satisfaction, or lack thereof, with President Biden’s term so far. Whether it is economic pressure at the gas pump, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine, or the end of Roe v. Wade, voters will be naturally inclined to view President Biden as the responsible party, and whether this assessment is fair may not matter.
The perception of the people is what is most important, and right now, many Americans, especially conservative Americans, are unhappy with the direction that Biden’s administration is going. Furthermore, throughout his term as Senator, Mark Kelly has voted in line with Biden 94% of the time. Due to these factors, I suspect that Republican turnout in Arizona will be very high this year.
Prediction: This is a very tight race, and I consider it even tighter than the polling numbers show. The statement made by the anonymous Kelly campaign insider referenced earlier is very accurate. This truly is a race that will likely end with a 1% margin between the two candidates. There is every indication that this race will end up being a toss-up, and you would have the best chance of accurately picking the winner of this race by flipping a coin. However, the tightening polling numbers, the massive influx of Republican money, and the current unpopularity of President Biden lead me to believe that Blake Masters will win this election by a very, very narrow margin.