Emma Pearson is a freshman Honors College Fellow in the Fullbright College of Arts and Science. She is a Biochemistry major with a minor in Theater. Originally from Lamar, Arkansas, Emma has become involved with various organizations on campus, including Honors College Community Leaders, Honors College Ambassadors, and Democracy Fellows. After college, she hopes to attend graduate school and pursue a career in biomedical research, while always remaining actively engaged in local, state, and national politics.
Pennsylvania is the battleground of a critical U.S. Senate race that grows closer each day. Bob Casey, a Democrat, currently holds the seat, and it is critical for the Democratic Party that he keep it if they hope to maintain control. A win for Dave McCormick would mean a step toward majority for the GOP, which is already favored to gain control of Congress. Who will the ad-battered voters of Pennsylvania choose?
Bob Casey is a seasoned member of the Senate and a household name, in part because of his own political career of two decades, and in part because of his father’s career before him. He is the incumbent, and he has been a Senator since 2007 with previous experience as State Treasurer and Auditor General. David McCormick, on the other hand, was the CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates. He is also a West Point Graduate, a former deputy advisor of George W. Bush, and has been involved in the United States Departments of the Treasury and Commerce.
In August, Casey had a modest lead of 8-10 points in various polls, which was outside the margin of error. Since then, McCormick has been closing in, bringing the numbers back well inside the margin of error. Today, Casey maintains only about a 2 point lead, depending on the poll. This shrinkage has taken this race from close to hair-splitting. The lead is not to be considered as much as the trend: McCormick is clearly catching up. With numbers this close, any call should not be a confident one.
The closure of the gap is even more striking considering the controversy that David McCormick has faced regarding his citizenship. Essentially, there is a lot of evidence that despite renting a home in Pennsylvania, McCormick actually resides most of the time on the “Gold Coast” of Connecticut, where he also rents a home. This has brought into question his awareness of the issues facing Pennsylvanians and his commitment to the state itself. This has been the biggest controversy of the race. On the other hand, Casey’s biggest criticisms in this race have been his “oatmeal style of legislation” and accusations of pro-life sentiments. Neither of these should have caused him to lose support among Democrats, and if anything, should have made him more attractive to moderates and some undecided voters. Yet McCormick is quickly gaining on him.
Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent to inundate the people of Pennsylvania with the names, faces, and causes of these two men. McCormick leads in spending by about $20 million, helped in no small part by outside donors, mostly PACs and Super PACs, which have spent over $108 million promoting him. These outside are vastly outspending his own campaign, which has spent $22.2 million. The story is similar, but less extreme for Bob Casey, whose own campaign has spent $45 million while outside donors have contributed $67 million. This race is critical in the fight for control of the chamber, and the numbers show it: according to Open Secrets, it is one of the most expensive U.S. Senate races in the country.
McCormick’s financial advantage is one plausible reason for his gains in polling. He seems to be succeeding in making himself a household name, which is a difficult thing for a challenger to do, let alone a challenger against an incumbent of 18 years. With the staggering amount of money flooding in to support his campaign, however, it is certainly possible.
Prediction: The Democrat, Bob Casey, still leads by a little in the polls as of today, October 29th, 2024. It remains to be seen if he can translate that lead into a win next week. Taking into consideration the republican David McCormick’s gains in polling, it is impossible to make any confident prediction.