Anna Abston is a sophomore student in both the Fulbright and Walton colleges, majoring in political science and economics. Originally from Little Rock, Arkansas, she has been involved in many on-campus organizations, such as Associated Student Government, Chi Omega, and is a founding member of Democracy Fellows, an RSO that promotes civic engagement among students. After graduation, Anna plans to spend a gap year in Washington, DC, with hopes to attend law school down the line.
In this election season, Americans face the high-stakes decision between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, while Ohio voters carry an additional weight: possibly determining control of the US Senate for the next two years. Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown is defending his seat against Republican, Trump-backed businessman Bernie Moreno. With Democrats currently holding a narrow 51-49 Senate majority, Ohio’s outcome could swing the balance, especially as Brown currently leads by only a single point in recent polls. As of October 10th, the RealClearPolling average, which surveys likely voters, favored Brown, with a 3.7-point lead, 46.5% to Moreno’s 42.6%. However, more recent polling averages from RealClearPolling show Moreno closing the gap – down a mere 1 point. As of October 29th, The Hill gave Moreno a 0.6 point lead, at 46.8% to Brown’s 46.2%. To predict how this election may shake out, it is necessary to consider the policy issues that matter most to Ohioans and analyze historical voting patterns that may influence voters’ decisions.
Abortion is a top issue in Ohio, particularly since Ohioans voted to protect abortion rights by referendum after Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022. Senator Brown, a vocal supporter of abortion rights, aligns with many urban voters in Ohio, especially women. Abortion is evidently a key issue for voters in both Congressional and Presidential elections this year. The passage of this Constitutional amendment in Ohio mobilized voters and could hurt Moreno’s chances to win the votes of women. He supported a national abortion ban in 2022. Like many Republicans running for office this election season, Moreno has softened his stance during his campaign, though voters are skeptical as his abortion policy remains unclear.
The strongest difference between these two candidates is their approaches to policy; Brown, focusing on working-class and local issues, benefits from a longstanding reputation as a fighter for Ohioans. Moreno, however, leans on national issues, especially border security and election integrity. He has gained support from Trump’s base, which was a significant factor in his primary win in March. The financial intensity of this race also reflects its importance; over $324 million has been spent on ads, making it the most expensive non-presidential election this cycle and could end up being the most expensive in history. Senator Brown’s campaign has the financial advantage, at $76 million compared to Moreno’s $22 million, while Moreno, buttressed by outside spending, has the overall advertising advantages. Ultimately, the race remains close in a state that has voted red in the past two presidential election cycles.
As a three-term incumbent, Brown gains his strongest advantage from his grassroots support and record of retail politics. He first won the Senate seat in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Mike DeWine, as exit-polls showed voters were dissatisfied with President Bush’s foreign policy. Despite its history as a swing state, as Ohio becomes increasingly red, Brown’s chance of success dwindles. Moreno’s Trump-aligned message appeals strongly to the state’s conservative demographic– rural, older, white male voters without college degrees.
Prediction: This race is extremely close and ultimately unpredictable. While Moreno’s Trump endorsement and Ohio’s conservative lean increase his chances, Brown holds a small polling advantage and benefits from strong campaign financing and his incumbency. Though Trump won Ohio in 2016 and 2020, in the 2018 Senate race Brown successfully held his seat against Republican Jim Renacci, who, like Moreno, was endorsed by Trump. Ultimately, these facts seem to suggest a fourth victory by a small margin for Senator Brown, though the final outcome may hinge on voter turnout.