Kate Cheek is a junior honors student majoring in biology and psychology at the University of Arkansas. Originally from Flippin, Arkansas, Kate has been involved in several activities on campus, including genetics research and the pre- medical honors society Alpha Epsilon Delta. After college, Kate plans to pursue a graduate degree in medicine.
The U.S. Senate race in Montana is looking bleak for Jon Tester, the Montana raised incumbent. Recent polling by the New York Times shows Tim Sheehy, a transplanted Montana business owner, up by seven points. Tester is the lone Democrat left in a statewide office in Montana, a state that has become progressively redder since the mid-1990s. Tester is not helped by the popularity of former president Trump in the state; Trump carried Montana by 20 points in 2016 and 16 points in 2020.
Tester is focusing on popular local issues: public land access, abortion rights, and supporting the Montana economy. Tester, who has served in the U.S. Senate since 2007, is working hard to distance himself from national issues. He has openly criticized the Biden-Harris administration on issues such as border security and has supported Israel’s right to self-defense, disagreeing with many other members of his party. Tester is highlighting his status as a third generation Montanan as evidence of his Montanan values and accurate representation.
Sheehy, a former navy SEAL and owner of a Montana-based aerial firefighting company, focuses on similar local issues: public lands and Montanan agriculture. Sheehy leans into national issues of inflation, border security, and gun rights. President Trump’s endorsement is important in a state where the former president has easily carried in the last two elections. As a non-native Montanan, Sheehy has highlighted his work in creating jobs in the state and appeals to a changing Montana.
More than half of Montana’s residents report living in a rural area, creating several unique challenges. Polling a geographically large and rural state is difficult. On election day, Montana’s small population does mean a relatively low amount of people can make big impacts at the polls; however, the small population creates difficulties for both candidates in Get Out the Vote initiatives. This race has highlighted another unique feature of Montana: almost half of the population was born in another state. Tester, the native candidate, has highlighted Sheehy’s out-of-state roots, but the effectiveness of this strategy has been questioned in Montana, where current Governor Greg Gianforte and Senator Steve Daines were born in other states.
Tester hopes he can make up the gap on election day through those concerned with codifying abortion, especially women, and by winning the votes of native Montanans identifying with him. Montana has a right to abortion initiative on the ballot, but while popular in the state, it has not appeared to influence the Senate race. Further, Sheehy has made a few blunders, the most recently of which was making an off-color joke about Native Americans, a minority group composing around six percent of the state population.
While Tester is not out, Sheehy has a comfortable lead in the polls. Democrats feel the race is not over, with Democratic super-PACS spending over 10 million dollars in the race in the final two weeks. However, this influx of money will likely have smaller effects in a state that has already received 140 million dollars’ worth of PAC ads by Mid-October. 64 million has been spent by Pro-Tester groups compared to 76 million spent by Pro-Sheehy groups. Total, more than 225 million dollars has been spent in the race, making it one of the most expensive Senate races in the country.
Prediction: The changing demographics of Montana, increasing polarization at all levels, and presence of Trump on the ballot seem to have cost Tester his seat. As has been seen across the nation, rural Democrats are simply disappearing. This Montana race has been described as “The Last Stand of the Rural Democrats;” Tester simply looks unable to overcome his party affiliation in the ruby red state of Montana.