Muskan Taori is an honors student and Sturgis Fellow majoring in biochemistry at the University of Arkansas. Originally from Bentonville, AR, Muskan is involved all over campus. She serves as the Director of Municipal Relations for the Associated Student Government and is a Democracy Fellow. After college, she hopes to pursue a career in medical research.
How does one balance the aftermath of a natural disaster while exercising one’s civic responsibility in a state that could determine the state of the country for the next four years? This is the question that many voters in North Carolina have been dealing with in the wake of the destruction left by Hurricane Helene. Despite the state board of elections implementing new rules allowing affected voters to drop off their ballot anywhere in the state, barriers to vote have increased significantly for many Western North Carolinians. Many voters, especially lower-income voters, have had a shift in priorities because they are now more focused on day-to-day survival over political engagement. This is bad news for the Democrats because lower income voters are a significant portion of the Democratic base. Large scale disasters tend to result in worse outcomes for incumbents which is another piece of bad news for the Harris campaign.
Despite only going blue in the presidential election twice in the last 50 years, North Carolina is still a purple state, though maybe with a slight red tinge. With its 16 electoral votes, the state is essential to Trump’s campaign strategy, though both Democrats and Republicans have the state highlighted on their path to the White House. The state is a true toss-up with nearly all polls being too close to call; as of late October, both 538 and Nate Silver’s polling averages have Trump up by 1.1 points and the NYT has Trump winning by under 1 point. In recent election cycles, the margin has been relatively small with Obama beating John McCain by only around 14,000 votes in 2008. Both campaigns and their affiliated organizations have poured millions into advertisements into the state but recently, the Harris campaign has pulled back. However, both campaigns are still focused on the state and will both be visiting before the end of early voting on Saturday to drum up last-minute voting excitement.
For the last two elections, North Carolina has seen a lot of split-ticket voters. This cycle is shaping up to be the same as the gubernatorial election. The Republican nominee, Mark Robinson, has been embroiled in a multitude of scandals, causing him to have a sharp decline in the polls. However, many voters who are no longer supportive of Robinson are still supporting Trump and may split their vote to Josh Stein, the Democratic nominee, or skip voting for the governor entirely. This is good news for Trump because it suggests that negative sentiment towards Robinson has not extended fully towards him.
Prediction: Combining the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene with lower registration and a propensity for split-ticket voting, I think that the Trump campaign will squeeze out a win in North Carolina.