Maddie Gwinner is a junior honors student at the University of Arkansas majoring in Political Science and International Studies with minors in German and Legal Studies. Originally from St. Louis, Missouri, Gwinner is involved in multiple leadership and service organizations on campus. She is President of the Undergraduate Mock Trial Program and was part of the first team in University of Arkansas history to compete at the American Mock Trial Association National Championship Tournament. Gwinner is also a weekly volunteer for the Jane B. Gearhart Full Circle Food Pantry and works as a research assistant at the Terrorism Research Center in Fulbright College. After graduation, Gwinner will pursue a law degree.
Ten years ago, Georgia was not on the radar of most political scientists, but in 2024, many argue that Georgia will decide the general election. From 1972 to 2016, Georgia was a consistent red state, and that didn’t change substantially until Joe Biden, by a margin of 0.2%, beat Donald Trump. Although it came as a shock to scholars, subsequent elections have supported the notion that Georgia has become a swing state. For example, in January of 2021, Democratic Senators Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock claimed both Senate seats by a narrow margin, and despite Republican victories in the 2022 midterms, Warnock was reelected that year against a Trump-endorsed opponent. The tightness of these races, though they may not flip in every instance, are indicators of a swing state.
In the weeks leading up to November 5th, the Georgia State Election Board is adjusting their requirements to best accommodate an increase in election turnout and the procedural pressure of being a potential deciding factor in the presidential election. A total of seven new election rules were passed by the Trump-backed Georgia State Election Board in early-October, and one in particular would have required officials to hand-count the number of ballots cast at each polling place. Judge Robert McBurney struck down the election board’s rules and argued that the poll workers would require substantial training to handle millions of ballots. In his own words, the change would have been “administrative chaos.”
Already, Georgia is rapidly adapting to the widespread voter turnout with over 42% of Georgians having cast their ballot according to The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office in late October. Kamala Harris, similar to Joe Biden in 2016, will require overwhelming support and strong turnout rates from the state if she hopes to win it, and often, those votes come from the Black voters of Georgia who make up the largest proportion of Black Americans in any of the major swing states. In previous years, support for both Biden and Clinton among Black voters in Georgia remained around 90%, but it reached even higher when Barack Obama was running for office. Currently Kamala is attracting 82% of Black voters while Donald Trump has pushed his margin from 10% to 15%. This substantial decrease is why many argue Kamala Harris hosted a recent rally in Atlanta, GA and is sending Tim Walz to Savannah, GA later this week. It also accounts for Donald Trump’s focus on Michigan and Pennsylvania over Georgia as a focal point amidst the end of an election.
Apart from grassroots efforts, campaign spending is playing an enormous role in Georgia’s political landscape. Both sides have spent over $144 million in Georgia ads from July 22nd to October 8th, making it the current third-highest battleground state in terms of spending. Ads on both sides have seen a substantial impact on Georgia’s economy as Georgians from all over come to cities like Atlanta and Savannah for rallies and, in turn, provide additional business. Kamala Harris is currently ahead of Donald Trump by $7 million for future campaign ad bookings in the state; however, that number does not consider spending by interest groups and political action committees. Donald Trump tends to receive more ads from outside interest groups than Kamala Harris which means campaign spending is not the only metric of overall ad exposure.
Prediction: Despite Kamala’s last-minute appeals to Black voters through podcast appearances and policies geared towards their demographic, Georgia will not flip in the 2024 election. Current polling from Real Clear Politics puts Donald Trump up 2.4 points, and both 270 to Win and FiveThirtyEight have Trump up by 2% and 3% respectively. Georgia is, by the virtue of close margins and the margin of error, undoubtedly still a swing state that future candidates need to focus on; however, they will not swing in this particular cycle. I predict that Kamala Harris’ failure to win the Black Georgian vote will cost her the state despite apparent funding advantages and grassroots appearances.