Daniella Fernandez is an honors student from Springdale, Arkansas, majoring in psychology, criminology, and sociology. She holds multiple leadership positions across various organizations, including the Honors College Executive Board, Central American Student Alliance, Petal Lab, Mental Health Awareness Organization, and ASG’s Diversity Committee.
Arizona has become a significant topic of conversation in the political climate throughout recent history. Across the 18 elections since 1952, it has had only two Democratic wins; Bill Clinton scored the first in 1996, but the state didn’t start gaining a steady population of blue voters until around the mid-2010s. In 2012, Arizona was 13 points more Republican-leaning than the nation. Though Trump won the state in 2016, the state decreased to only six points more Republican leaning than the nation. Joe Biden narrowly flipped the state in 2020, marking the first blue win in 24 years. Currently, Arizona is considered a swing state. Many have been left wondering if it will follow up with a back-to-back blue win for the first time since 1948, or if it will return to its consistently red pattern. The results will alter the election entirely. To better understand the possibilities that lie ahead, we must analyze one of the key influences that has driven the state to become purple: racial and ethnic makeup.
The Latine or Hispanic population, sometimes referred to as the sleeping giant, has made all the difference in Arizona. In the early 2000s, the majority of Latines in Arizona were undocumented and ineligible to vote. Today, around 40% of the Latines in the state are naturalized citizens, and 18% of them are voting in their very first presidential election. They make up roughly one-third of the population in the state, and the top three voting priorities for that demographic are all related cost of living: inflation, wages, and affordable housing, respectively. In the past, Latines have typically voted Democratically. High inflation and cost of living prices have made the Republican candidate more appealing to younger Hispanic men this election cycle.
In an attempt to appeal to the increasingly Republican-leaning demographic, Kamala Harris has made it very clear that she intends to increase border security and enact stricter immigration policies. In fact, in 2021, she discouraged immigrants from coming to the U.S. by stating that they will be turned away. Notably, her parents are immigrants from Jamaica and India. Democratic advertisers have spent $80.8 million on T.V. advertisements in the state. Comparatively, Republican advertisers have spent $64.3 million in the state. Both Donald Trump and Harris will be campaigning in Phoenix on Thursday, October 31st. Los Tigres Del Norte, one of the most iconic norteña bands, will be performing at Harris’ campaign.
Prediction: According to the state’s history, demographics, and recent polling data, I believe that Harris will narrowly win the state. I think a key driver of this win are the Latines, specifically Latine women, and their historical support for the Democratic party. However, I do acknowledge that young Latine men pose a significant threat to this prediction.