Cade Smiley is a sophomore honors student at the University of Arkansas. Born and raised in Conway, Cade is involved on campus as an ASG Senator and a peer mentor for the First Year Data Science program. He is an Honors College Fellow majoring in data science, with minors in finance and political science.
Formerly a reliably Republican state, Arizona has become substantially more competitive in recent election cycles. With recent victories for Democrats in U.S. Senate elections and a narrow victory in the state for President Biden in 2020, Democrats have shown an ability to win statewide elections in the Grand Canyon State. With incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey term-limited, the 2022 gubernatorial election in Arizona provides the Democrats with another chance to flip a Republican-held office.
Katie Hobbs, the current Secretary of State, is the Democratic nominee for governor. Hobbs rose to national prominence in 2020, as her office was partly responsible for certifying President Biden’s victory in Arizona. This process was shrouded in controversy, as President Trump and his legal team claimed that the election results in Arizona were false.
Hobbs easily secured the Democratic nomination, winning almost three-fourths of the vote in the August primary. In the general election, she will face former news anchor and political outsider, Kari Lake. Lake narrowly won the Republican nomination against fellow Republican Karrin Taylor Robson, who was endorsed by incumbent Governor Doug Ducey, as well as former Vice President Mike Pence. Lake had the benefit of former President Trump’s endorsement, who stated that Lake would make the MAGA movement “very proud.”
Lake has repeatedly denied the results of the 2020 election, referring to Joe Biden as “an illegitimate president” and stating that she would not have signed on to the certification of the 2020 results in Arizona. In October, Lake refused to pledge that she would accept the results of her own election in 2022, stating, “I’m going to win the election, and I will accept that result,” though she later clarified that she would accept the results of a “fair, honest, and transparent election,” regardless of the outcome.
As of late October, Hobbs has out-raised Lake in fundraising, with Hobbs’ campaign bringing in approximately $9.6 million compared to Lake’s $7.4 million raised. Despite this advantage for Hobbs, outside spending offers some relief for Lake. The Republican Governors Association (RGA) has spent over five million dollars in the race, nearly matching the total expenses from Lake’s own campaign. These expenses have been solely to campaign against Hobbs, with the RGA hopeful that their advertisements will dissuade voters from supporting Hobbs’ campaign.
The Gubernatorial election is accompanied by a U.S. Senate election in Arizona. Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly narrowly won a 2020 special election to finish the term of late Senator John McCain. Polling since early October has consistently shown Kelly with a small lead over his Republican opponent Blake Masters, another Trump-aligned conservative. Though some organizations, like the Cook Political Report, have moved the race back from the “Lean Democrat” category to the “Toss Up” category, Kelly is still considered to have a small advantage, with FiveThirtyEight giving Kelly a 73% chance to win less than two weeks before the election.
Kelly’s advantage is good news for Hobbs, as voter turnout for her fellow Democrat will likely have a “coattails” effect in improving turnout for her. A sizable victory for Kelly would improve Hobbs’ chances; a Kelly defeat would likely be incompatible with a Hobbs victory.
Prediction: Polling between Lake and Hobbs has been competitive throughout the race, though Lake has taken a slight advantage in the second half of October. Hobbs has refused to take part in a televised debate, allowing Lake to portray her as absent from the race. These factors have resulted in FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe Model moving Arizona into the “Lean R” category, demonstrating a narrow but defined advantage for Lake. Based on these recent developments in the race, I predict that Kari Lake will defeat Katie Hobbs to be elected as the next Arizona Governor.