Anthony Sterba is a junior honors student majoring in political science and minoring in history at the University of Arkansas. Originally from Little Rock, Anthony is a member of the Undergraduate Mock Trial organization on campus. After college, Anthony hopes to attend law school to study to become a public defender.
On November 8, midterm elections will occur across the country, deciding not only control of the Congress but also the future of President Biden’s agenda. Of the many Senate seats up for election, Wisconsin stands as one of the most interesting. Having flipped from voting for Donald Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in 2020, both parties view the election as a key race to decide the composition of the Senate, especially as the Cook Political Report rates the seat as a toss-up. Despite this, the facts and data indicate a clear favorite in the race.
Republican Ron Johnson, despite his previous pledges to retire after completing his second term, is running for another term in the Wisconsin seat. A Trump loyalist, Johnson faces an interesting challenge in a state which rejected Trump just two years ago. Challenging his reelection is Democrat Mandela Barnes, the Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin. An organizer and former member of the Wisconsin State Assembly, he faces an uphill battle in dislodging the well-known incumbent.
The two candidates participated in two debates against one another, serving as a microcosm of each candidate’s pitch to the electorate. Three key issues emerged between the two candidates: Abortion, Crime, and Trump. Since the Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe v Wade, abortion has emerged as a key issue that Democrats hope will mobilize voters. In line with this, Barnes promised to codify Roe v Wade, attacking Johnson for having previously told women to move to another state if they did not like the state’s abortion rules. For his part, Johnson did counter this attack by stating that Mandela would issue a zero-restriction abortion rule and push for a single-issue referendum on the issue. On crime, Johnson criticized Barnes’s position on bail reform, bringing special attention to the perpetrator of the Waukesha Christmas parade attack having been released on $1,000 bail just days before the tragedy. Barnes responded that his position was mischaracterized, stating that dangerous people would not be able to buy their way out of prison regardless of the amount. In response to Johnson’s wider claim that he is soft on crime, Barnes brought up the January 6 Insurrection and Johnson’s minimization of the event. Johnson has tried to distance himself from Trump, going so far as to not appear at a rally with Trump and insist the election is about Wisconsin and not Trump, but this continues to be a connection that Democrats highlight. The final item of note in this debate was a sour moment from Johnson. When asked for a positive thing to say about his opponent, he said that Barnes ‘turned against America’.
As election day nears, high-profile Democrats such as Bernie Sanders and Barack Obama will visit the state to rally support for Barnes. On the Republican side, there is no indication of support from Trump, especially as Johnson sidesteps questions concerning whether he would ask the former president to rally for him. In terms of fundraising and outside spending, the two candidates are roughly at parity with Johnson having a slight edge according to the last filing. Finally, despite Barnes’s early lead in the polls, Johnson had emerged as a clear favorite. Considering all of this, despite a close race, there is an overwhelming favorite.
PREDICTION: Republican Ron Johnson will win a third term in the US Senate come election day. The incumbency advantage he possesses has simply not been overwhelmed by what Barnes has done so far. All signs point to a Johnson victory. Democrats must look elsewhere for a pickup this cycle.