Parker Blackburn is an honors junior double majoring in finance and economics at the University of Arkansas. Although he currently lives in Marshall, Texas, Parker has spent time all over Texas in cities like Dallas, Tyler and Canton. Currently, he serves as vice president of Phi Gamma Delta and participates in several RSOs like the Pre-Law Society, College Republicans, and Law Republicans. After college, Parker seeks to obtain his JD, specializing in criminal defense law.
Acting as the northernmost tip of the South, North Carolina holds the key to either another GOP victory or the first one-term presidency since George H.W. Bush in 1992. With an even conservative rural hold and a liberal urban base, the Tar Heel state continually causes grief to pollster and politicians alike running very close races for most of its elections. Yet, Republicans have won the battleground state for the last 10 out of 12 presidential elections. To oppose them, Democrats have tightly kept the governor’s seat to themselves, only adding to the political confusion of this swing state. For President Trump to even remain competitive against Biden, he must follow suit with his past campaign and the campaigns of those before him.
With only a week out, both candidates are wrestling for a victory in a state where a flip of a coin could do the same job. Seen from the current polling, Biden averages only one point above Trump. Because they are left with so little time, the presidential candidates must stick to their espoused values for any chance of breaking into the middle ground voters.
After 10 campaign trips since the Republican National Convention, President Trump and his campaign rally team of Vice President Pence, Donald Trump Jr., and Ivanka Trump have sought to take the state by storm. On Saturday, North Carolina greeted the incumbent in Lumberton once more with Pence holding two more rallies in Kinston and Greensboro as well. For the final lap before November 3rd, these pit stops veered no different than the others as Trump hammered in his charismatic rhetoric against Biden and his Democratic peers. This game-time strategy comes in desperate need from Trump’s last election in North Carolina. In 2016, Trump kept a 3.7-point lead with a more disorganized and less funded campaign than seen today. If he can tap back into that energy with his better-developed resources, election day will look favorably on the president.
Keeping along with his rhetoric as well, Biden’s campaign has traveled less due to the COVID-19 pandemic, seeing North Carolina five times and only twice personally. While the alarms sound off when in comparison with Trump, North Carolina holds some safeguards to shift the pressure back to the GOP. Across the state in 2016, youth voters (ages 18-29) account for 45% of the electorate, and 57% of those voters went Democrat. Following the same trend, the youth-voter margins for other NC federal offices held by Democrats overshadow the Republicans. However, what previously held Hilary Clinton back was that 55% of all eligible youths failed to make it to the polls. Possibly due to North Carolina’s dislike of Clinton, that precedent has flipped, most probably due to the surge in voting advertising. The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (or CIRCLE), a non-partisan research organization, estimated 331,900 North Carolinian youth voters are casting early ballots in this battleground state, drastically differing from the 2016 tally of 88,600. If these younger voters can reflect the 30-point margin that Biden holds nationally in this age bracket, Joe Biden will take away the crucial 15 electoral votes from Trump.
Prediction: With blue streaks painted across its red landscape, North Carolina could shift with the change in the wind. Trump has rallied exponentially more. He has kept up with media campaigning. He has a better staff. Unless the youth show out, North Carolina will be swept up in the momentum of Trump’s campaign.