Spencer Soule is a senior honors student studying political science and history at the University of Arkansas. Spencer was born and raised in North Little Rock, Arkansas, and is an active member of the Distinguished Lectures Committee and is an Honors College Fellow. After graduating, Spencer hopes to attend law school.
In April, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan announced that he would not be seeking reelection to his seat in Congress. In addition to begging the question of who will replace Ryan as the next Speaker, and which political party they will be a member of, his announcement meant that his seat, representing Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District, became a viable target for Democrats. According to Ballotpedia, the August 14 Wisconsin primary election for the seat resulted in victories for Democrat Randy Bryce and Republican Bryan Steil. Interestingly, the total number of votes cast for Democratic candidates in the district totaled 61,087, while the total number of votes cast for Republican candidates was only 59,870. Whether these numbers are indicative of Democratic energy, Republican disaffection, or some other factor is yet to be seen. The results of the general election in November will provide more insight.
Randy Bryce is an ironworker, union activist and army vet, and his campaign has made a concerted effort to portray him as such. In his announcement video, released in June of 2017, Bryce can be seen wearing a hardhat, working in a steel mill, and advocating for access to healthcare. Bryce has tried to draw clear contrasts between himself and establishment politicians. On the other hand, Bryan Steil is a University of Wisconsin regent, and a former staffer for Paul Ryan. According to a CNBC report, Ryan has endorsed Steil, and has actively helped him raise money for the race. Steil is hoping that the historic popularity of Paul Ryan and the Republican Party in the district will help carry him to victory in November.
Recent polling conducted by the New York Times and Siena College shows Bryce trailing Steil by 6 points. A poll run by Randy Bryce’s campaign in August has the Democrat up by 1 point, however. In 2016 Donald Trump won the district by 10 points, and Paul Ryan won reelection by 35 points. The district encompasses a large portion of southeastern Wisconsin, including parts of southern Milwaukee county, and is largely characterized by farmlands and industrial towns. When considering how strong the Republican hold on the district has been for decades, and how well Republicans performed in the district two years ago, it is remarkable that this seat is competitive in 2018. The election will likely come down to turnout, and whether or not Democrats are successful in getting supporters to the polls. While the district seems to be a toss-up this year, Randy Bryce will have an uphill battle to defeat the political infrastructure that Paul Ryan has established in the district.
If he wins, Randy Bryce will have no chance of becoming Speaker of the House as a freshman in Congress, but his victory would give Democrats a much needed pick-up towards taking control of the House, and with it the Speakership.