Spencer Soule is a senior honors student studying political science and history at the University of Arkansas. Spencer was born and raised in North Little Rock, Arkansas, and is an active member of the Distinguished Lectures Committee and is an Honors College Fellow. After graduating, Spencer hopes to attend law school.
New York’s 19th Congressional District, representing eastern New York, is one of the most hotly contested districts in the country. The district is currently represented by Republican John Faso, a moderate Republican who has nonetheless voted with Trump nearly 90% of the time, and Democrats are eager to get him out of office. According to the Daily Freeman, a local New York paper, seven candidates ran in the Democratic primary, and three of those candidates raised more than $1 million. The eventual victor, Antonio Delgado, raised over $2 million. Delgado is new to politics, and although his history as a rap artist has come under fire from Republicans, the excitement around his campaign is clear. In the primary election, Democrats collectively received just over 38,000 votes, based on data collected by Ballotpedia. Faso ran unopposed in the Republican primary, so there is no information on the number of votes he received, but the Daily Freeman did report that Faso raised about $1.6 million. Both parties are doing everything they can to win the seat in November.
At this point in the election, the New York 19th is widely considered to be a toss-up. According to FiveThirtyEight, recent polls published by Monmouth University have Delgado up by as much as 6 points, and as little as 2 points. A poll published by Siena College at the end of August had Faso up by 5 points. This election will likely come down to turnout, but with no data showing how many voters cast their ballot for Faso in the primary, and no clear frontrunner in the polls, it is difficult to make a prediction about what will happen in November. Democrats are clearly fired up about this race, and they need to come out in large numbers if they hope to unseat an incumbent.
This district has an interesting history, primarily due to its status as being relatively purple. A Republican has held the seat since 2011, which would typically indicate a strong Republican hold. However, Barack Obama won the district in both 2008 and 2012. In 2016, Donald Trump won the district by 6.8 points, while Hillary Clinton carried New York state by more than 22 points. The fact that the district pivoted towards Trump in 2016 should be concerning to Democrats, since they clearly lost significant support in only four years. If Democrats hope to unseat Faso, they have to capitalize on the Democratic base that carried the district for Obama six years ago