Joseph Leggitt is a sophomore at the University of Arkansas majoring in chemical engineering. Originally from Greenbrier, Arkansas, Joseph began attending the University of Arkansas in 2017. Joseph hopes to pursue a degree in history and a career teaching history.
In a year that has become increasingly marked by the nationalization of state and local races, and by a shifting of priorities for both Democrats and Republicans, the Sixth Congressional District of Colorado presents a prime example of the potential changes these midterm elections could bring. This race sees the incumbent Representative Mike Coffman of the Republican party challenged by Jason Crow of the Democratic party. According to a recent poll conducted by New York Times, 51% supported Crow, 40% supported Coffman, and 9% were undecided. Aggregation of other polls found at Real Clear Politics shows that most agree, Crow leads over Coffman by 9 percentage points at the very least. However, one thing to note is that only 500 of the nearly 30,000 callers chose to answer the poll, which could indicate these results do not accurately reflect the true attitudes of District 6’s population.
Other key factors can be brought into view, such as the spending gap between the two representatives, with Crow outspending Coffman by more than $1 million, which is a marked difference from the 2014 midterm elections, when Coffman outpaced his then-competitor Andrew Romanoff by almost $1 million. Demographics will almost certainly play into this election as well, as recent censuses indicate an increase in minority population, particularly Hispanic/Latino, who vote primarily Democratic by most exit polls. However, analysis of the candidates themselves creates a scene of a much closer race. Coffman himself is apparently intending to distance himself from the national establishment, as indicated by a 2016 campaign ad in which he promises to stand up to Trump if he doesn’t feel Trump is capable of doing his job. Other than that, neither candidate has released a campaign ad this year on his own.
In terms of background, both candidates are military veterans, Coffman being a former Marine and Crow being a former Army Ranger, with similar views on most issues. During an interview with Denver7, both indicated they were not content with the leadership in Washington and agreed that immigration needed to be reformed to some degree. This interview also revealed where they differed in their openly-stated views, however. Coffman came forward in support of securing the border and supporting military veterans while Crow believes that the biggest concern is improvement of healthcare, which is a concern for many younger Americans at this point. The final important area of policy difference is that Crow is more concerned on the subject of gun violence, coming forward in support of various gun control measures that Coffman does not support.
Despite the fact that both the polling and campaign spending indicate a potential victory for Crow, I believe Coffman may actually be the victor in this case. He has held this office for the last five election cycles of the district, even holding his office during the 2016 elections where Hillary Clinton took the state with a 4.9 point spread, meaning he held his office during one of the greatest years for Democratic participation in elections in the state. With an incumbency this impressive, it would take quite a bit more voter motivation than 2016 to unseat him, which I don’t believe Crow will be capable of mustering, especially since voter turnout is traditionally lower in midterm elections when compared to presidential election years. However, I do believe it will be a very close race and definitely one to keep an eye on as midterms draw closer.