Anders Nowell is a junior honors student and Governor’s distinguished scholar from Little Rock, Arkansas. As a lifelong native of the Natural State, Anders has a passion for public policy and politics. He is pursuing a B.S. in biology with minors in business management and medical humanities and hopes to become a physician.
The state that remained undefeated for the Democrats since 1988 swung for Trump in 2016, and now finds itself in the spotlight once again as arguably the most important set of electoral votes in the country. Joe Biden, a Pennsylvania native himself, seeks to reestablish the blue wall, while Trump hopes to repeat his narrow success from 2016. For both candidates, Pennsylvania carries an immense amount of weight that could determine the difficulty of their path to the White House. 85% of electoral maps in favor of Joe Biden have him as the victor in Pennsylvania. With a loss in Pennsylvania and in another swing state like Wisconsin, Trump will have to win the rest of his electoral map from 2016, and losing Pennsylvania and Florida would be devastating. Biden currently leads by 5.1 points; a little more comfortable than the 3.7 point lead held by Hillary Clinton in 2016, however it is important to remember that Trump won by 0.7 points. With a repeat of the 2016 disaster in the polls, Pennsylvania, and ultimately the presidency could be decided by less than 75,000 votes.
Pennsylvania has seen a more unconventional type of race this go around. In light of the Coronavirus pandemic, it seems as if Trump and Biden have skewed from the policy positions that typically preside in tossup states, and instead have directed more personal attacks at each other. One exception to this, however, has been fracking. Trump has repeatedly taken direct shots at Biden for his contradictory statements on fracking, but to Pennsylvanians, fracking isn’t a make or break issue as almost half of registered voters support a total ban on the process. What seems to be a more important factor influencing the two candidates’ votes isn’t a tangible one like jobs, healthcare, or energy, but instead voter enthusiasm.
In 2016, Democrats had a 900,000 person registered voter advantage. While the polls favoring Democrats have increased, their voter registration has not. Coming into this election season, Republicans have cut the lead down to 700,000 voters, with 100,000 new registered Republicans in the last year. Republicans have seen a positive net gain of registered voters in 62 out of 67 counties and Lackawanna county, home to Joe Biden and a Clinton win in 2016, gained a net of 704 republican voters. Perhaps the most ominous statistic to democrats is Erie County. Erie has predicted the statewide winner in seven straight elections, and since 2016 gained a net of 1,785 registered republicans. These factors may not swing the election, but they sure aren’t good news for democrats. Trump also brings a crowd to wherever he campaigns, shown by his trademark, high energy rallies.While Biden took questions from sidewalk reporters in a surprise visit in Chester, PA, Trump headlined three explosive rallies in one day. Biden seems to have a sizable lead in Pennsylvania, but his campaign presence hasn’t been his strong suit. He currently stands as the most lightly traveled presidential candidate in recent history. With Hillary Clinton’s upset in 2016, it seems surprising that Biden has not filled the remaining pre-election days with endless campaign stops. In the midst of pre-election mayhem, Pennsylvania definitely seems safer this go around for Biden than it did for Clinton. An overwhelming majority of polls predict Biden as the winner, however, voter energy in the Keystone State might be affecting the hometown favorite more than we think.
Prediction: Against all polls, predictions, and odds, the shy Trump voters show up in droves on November 3rd to keep Pennsylvania red.