Benjamin Pierce is a freshman honors student majoring in history and political science at the University of Arkansas. Originally from Fayetteville, Arkansas, Ben volunteers with the Jane B. Gearhart Full Circle Food Pantry and is a Sturgis fellow. After college, Ben hopes to go to either law or graduate school to continue his education.
Since 1992, Ohio has been a bellwether in presidential elections, with each winning candidate carrying the state. In 2016, Ohio followed the trend by supporting President Trump by an astonishing 8.1 points in the polls. Now, as Biden seemingly gains in the polls against Trump, Trump’s substantive victory in the state four years ago remains an important context.
Biden’s campaign strategy in Ohio is built upon the idea of reclaiming many of the low-income, white voters that Trump carried in 2016. Biden’s embrace of labor-centered, economic populism seeks to draw more support from the voters that Trump has neglected. This strategy has led to Democratic wins in Ohio recently, with Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown fighting off his 2018 challenger easily on election day. Brown’s relentlessly honest midwestern labor Democrat persona is very similar to Biden’s political reputation, and Brown’s victory signals how Biden’s strategy is one that could easily win in Ohio. Trump’s Ohio strategy is built upon the economic growth of the country pre-COVID. He hopes that his emphasis on the seeming prosperity of the country in 2019 will solidify him with white rust belt voters and expand his support in suburban Ohio, a region he needs to do well in to win the state.
Campaign spending in Ohio offers insight into how the campaigns both feel about the Buckeye state. Recently, Trump has pulled most of his ad spending from the state, allowing for Biden to start outspending him on advertising. Their advertising spending mirrors their campaign strategies, with Biden spending heavily in communities facing economic turmoil, with Trump buying in suburban areas, hoping that rural, blue-collar voters will back him nevertheless. Trump’s abandonment of the state signals that his campaign does not see Ohio as their best pathway towards victory.
Trump’s abandonment of Ohio does not mean that the race is not close, in fact, he has a slight lead of 0.6 points as of October 29. In a race this tight, the results will come down to whoever turns out the most voters. Voter turnout was one of Clinton’s biggest issues in 2016, with her campaign drawing low African-American turnout, specifically in the Cleveland area. Biden needs turnout in these major metropolitan areas in Ohio to win, and Biden knows this. In recent events and debates, Biden has repeatedly pushed for voter turnout. Already turnout in Ohio is up, signaling the high turnout that Biden needs to win the state.
Prediction: Given Biden’s recent gains across the country, the already high turnout in Ohio, and the spending advantage, Biden will narrowly win Ohio on November 3rd and seal his Electoral College victory.