Swing State Predictions from the Campaign 2020 Honors Course

Swing State Predictions from the Campaign 2020 Honors Course

As of November 2, FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 90% chance of winning the Electoral College (compared to around 70% for Clinton in 2016) and a 97% chance of winning the popular vote. Everyone has read about how the reasons a number of polls—especially state polls—were off in 2016. In order to win reelection, President Trump has to hope for an even more significant polling error in 2020 that tilts in his direction.