What a Long, Strange Trip It’s Been: “Tracking Trump & Hillary” Final Electoral College Predictions

 Can you believe it? It’s finally November 8. Election Day. Finally. Best case scenario? We know who our next President will be later this evening. Worst case? We head into December with all of us searching Wikipedia to figure out the what exactly happens if there’s a 4-4 vote in the Supreme Court on the issue of whether or not to extend a recount in the state of <fill in the blank>. For the collective sanity of our nation, let’s cheer for the former.

As I mentioned in a post a few weeks ago, the focus of our “Tracking Trump & Hillary” class was to figure out which candidate is helping or hurting his/her chances of winning 270 votes in the Electoral College. The campaign has certainly had its ebbs and flows, which we have “tracked” every step of the way since the conventions. In preparation for the first Tuesday following the first Monday of November 2016 (big shoutout to the U.S. for still maintaining a political tradition that dates back to the agrarian society of the 1800s) each student in “Tracking Trump & Hillary” was asked to make a series of predictions, which included the production of an Electoral College map. I was also asked to put my political acumen on the line and do the same. Here’s what we’re thinking will happen:

Noah Pittman, Instructor

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Noah’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+4%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Ted Cruz

Braden Brown

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Braden’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+6%)

Senate Control – Democrats /House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Marco Rubio

Maxwell Carter

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Maxwell’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+4%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Tom Cotton

Courtney Cooper

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Courtney’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+5%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Democrats

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Ted Cruz

Darynne Dahlem

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Darynne’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (less than 1%)

Senate Control – Republicans / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Paul Ryan

Zana English

Winner of the Electoral College – Donald Trump (Zana’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+1%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Democrats

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Cory Booker

Carter Fox

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Carter’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+2%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020?: Marco Rubio

Amanda Funderburg

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Amanda’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+3%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Tom Cotton

J.P. Gairhan

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (J.P’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Donald Trump (+1%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Tom Cotton

Colin Gonzalez

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Colin’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+4%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Kanye West

Sam Harris

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Sam’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+4%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Marco Rubio

Mary Beth Kennedy

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Mary Beth’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+4%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Ted Cruz

Jake Kyte

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Jake’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+4%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Kanye West (realistically, Mike Pence)

Kelly McKenzie

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Kelly’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+4%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Tom Cotton

Taylor Pray

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Taylor’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+3%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Ted Cruz

Hannah Ray

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Hannah’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+7%)

Senate Control – Republicans / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Tom Cotton

Spencer Soule

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Spencer’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+4%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Tom Cotton

Summer Stallbaumer

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Summer’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+3%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Kanye West

Baxter Yarbrough

Winner of the Electoral College – Hillary Rodham Clinton (Baxter’s Map) / Winner of the Popular Vote – Hillary Rodham Clinton (+3%)

Senate Control – Democrats / House Control – Republicans

Who will be the first to announce his/her intention to run in 2020? Kanye already has, but Ted Cruz?

In Summary

As you can see, our students are pretty bullish on Secretary Clinton being elected the 45th President of the United States with a popular vote margin in the range of 3-5 points. There isn’t as much consensus on control of Congress, although the class seems to have the Democrats as a slight favorite to win the Senate while the Republicans look to be a strong favorite to maintain their House majority. The class also sees Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, and yes, Kanye West, as early candidates in the 2020 primaries.

We also asked the students to make a prediction of what will be the “most surprising moment of election night.” Here are a few of our favorites:

“Nothing scandalous or shocking will happen, and the results will be reported before 11:00 p.m. without any additional dramatics. Wishful thinking?” – Taylor Pray

“Tim Kaine ripping into a sick harmonica solo in the middle of Secretary Clinton’s victory speech. He just can’t help himself.” – J.P. Gairhan

“I honestly don’t know what could surprise me at this point. Maybe if everything went smoothly?” – Summer Stallbaumer

“Kanye West talking about how he is going to be President in 2020.” – Darynne Dahlem

“Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announces that the U.S. Senate will begin to consider the nomination of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court within the next week.” – Me

Thanks so much for taking time to read our predictions, and finally, here’s something we can all agree on: Go Hogs! Beat LSU and keep the boot in Arkansas!

 

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